The big economic news this week was Friday's Employment data, which fell short of Wall Street forecasts and pushed mortgage rates lower. Investors continued to watch the situation in Europe, but there were no major market moving developments. Due to a rally on Friday, Austin mortgage rates ended the week lower.
Despite stronger than expected economic data, the financial situation in Greece held the greatest influence on mortgage rates this week. A flight to quality and prospects of slower economic growth in Europe were favorable for mortgage markets and negative for the stock market, and Austin mortgage rates ended the week lower.
A combination of factors was negative for mortgage markets this week, and Austin mortgage rates ended higher. Large budget deficits and economic troubles in smaller European Union nations made bonds less attractive to global investors.
Most U.S. business economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates within six months by between a quarter and a half percentage point, according to a survey released on Monday.
New home sales fell 11.2% in January to a record low level. Existing home sales weren't very pretty either, down 7.2%, though they're UP 11.5% over a year ago. Let's remember that last Fall we all thought the tax credit was going away at the end of November. Many sales got pushed into October and November, causing sales drops the next two months. But the median new home price is down just 2.4% year over year and the average price is now UP 3.7%. For an existing home, the median price is unchanged from a year ago and the average price is UP 2.6%. More evidence home prices are stabilizing, with some analysts expecting modest gains for the year. Supporting this, the Case-Shiller home price index was UP 0.3% in December, its seventh straight monthly rise.
After several weeks of focus on Fed actions and events in foreign markets, domestic economic data was the primary influence on mortgage markets this week. Weaker than expected results from the data helped Austin mortgage rates, which ended the week lower.
While investors began the week watching for fresh information about Greece and China, the Fed stole the spotlight on Wednesday with news that was unfavorable for mortgage markets, and mortgage rates ended the week moderately higher.
The Fed statement essentially followed the expected script, demand was strong for the Treasury auctions, and much of the economic data released during the week was stronger than expected. The net effect was a small increase in mortgage rates during the week.
While Austin mortgage rates climbed in December, they have decreased during the first two weeks of January. A combination of factors was favorable for mortgage markets this week. Low inflation, weaker than expected economic growth data, and strong demand for the Treasury auctions all helped Austin mortgage rates move a little lower.
Just a quick update as we are minutes away from the results of today’s 40 billion 10 year note auction. The market has slipped a touch, primarily due to hedging in front of the issue. 10 year note down 8/32’s (yield 3.75%), MBS off 5/32’s, and stocks up 33 points on the Dow. The $10,000.00 question is who will or will not show up to buy the auction.
