Technically, the rally we’ve seen the past couple of days has improved the charts, turning the trend to neutral from bearish. The key here is neutral not bullish, telling us that continued upside (better mortgage pricing) will be a challenge.
If our work (and that of others ) is correct, we would expect a larger bearish move (more selling/worsening mortgage pricing) in the days ahead. To avoid another leg down, we need to close below 3.74% on the 10 year note (end of day close). Best to keep both hands on the wheel.
It fits with the technical picture as well since we are now becoming over bought in the near term. Overall, both global and stateside concerns will keep the market on edge and support lower mortgage rates.
No news but a lot of action as the new week begins. Gold has made a new high, trading above $1100.00, commodities on the rise, and the dollar down against almost every major currency in the world. Oil has rebounded, trading at $79.50 (up over $2.00), as the approach of Hurricane Ida has traders on edge. Stocks got a lift from Europe and Asia with the Dow currently up 130 points. Bonds, notes, and MBS continue to hold up well despite 101 billion in supply coming this week.
While daily volatility was high this week, Austin mortgage rates ended just slightly lower than last week. The primary factors influencing Austin mortgage rates were offsetting. The economic growth data released this week was stronger than expected, but inflation remained low. While the first two Treasury auctions produced impressive results, the final one was relatively weak.
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