This is a time for Austin mortgage borrowers to be careful. Take advantage of any rally the market gives you and get on the bus before it leaves the station.
This morning, bond prices are a touch higher following the weekly jobless claims data release. Initial unemployment claims fell to 444k in the week ending May 8th, down from an upward revised 448k. Economists had expected claims to drop from the previously reported 444k to 440k. Initial claims of 444k were a touch higher than estimates, but still a mere 5,000 above the year's low and at the bottom end of the range which has persisted throughout 2010.
Looking at last week’s rally, most of the trade was on short covering which means that traders were not initiating new long positions (expecting the market to continue to rally). We buy that argument and if correct, we would suggest that you “buy the rumor, sell the news”. In English, this means that mortgage pricing should remain relatively stable for most of the week and then worsen post Unemployment Report data on Friday
The U.S. economy lost 85K jobs in December, bringing the total to 7.6 million since the recession started in December 2007. Back month revisions also come into play as October job losses increased 16K while November’s posting improved by 15k. The November number now stands at plus 4K, the first positive employment growth two years.
Mortgage pricing is trying to work its way back from the lows of the early morning trade. We are not out of the woods yet, although I wouldn’t expect this trade session today to be very volatile facing tomorrow morning’s Employment report. From what we are seeing, the estimates are anywhere’s from 100k to 130k job losses vs the 190k number from the previous report. I am leaning more towards the -110k mark at this point. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to stay at the 10.2% previous month number, as well as avg hourly earnings and avg work week numbers to stay the same as well.
This morning, the October employment report produced some surprises. Most notably, the unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, well higher than expected, and its highest level since 1983. We did hit the jobs number right on the head at190,000 job losses for the month, but August and September's job losses were revised with 91,000 fewer lost. September numbers were revised to only being down 219k from the 263k previously reported. Overall, the report shows that the employment situation remains depressed and economists are now saying that approximately 100k new jobs need to be created each month in order to meet the demand of new workers entering the market.
While our economy continues to struggle, job losses continue, and inflation remains a non-issue, there is a growing unease about the timing of future Fed actions and the market's ability to digest them. Today's FOMC announcement is not expected to make many, if any, changes versus September's announcement but the words will be scrutinized for even small hints of policy changes.
Currently, the 10 year note is down 20/32’s (yield 3.49%), MBS down 6/32’s, and stocks up 75 points on the big board. Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next. The current pattern (stocks) has been for sellers to lean on the market when it rallies (5 out of the last 7 days). We will want to watch the late afternoon trade (from 2:00 to 3:00 cst) to see if they can hold today’s gains. Failure to do so will improve mortgage pricing while a positive close, especially 50 points or more, will put additional pressure on our stuff.
Meant to post this Sept. 4. So much for the [...]
Meant to post this Sept. 4. Nonfarm payrolls fell 216K, [...]
