Although daily volatility was high this week, Austin mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged. A steady stream of economic news was roughly neutral for Austin mortgage rates, as stronger than expected economic data was offset by solid demand for the week's Treasury auctions.
This week's economic data and comments from Fed officials painted a picture of a gradually improving economy with very low inflation. March Core CPI inflation rose at a tame 1.1% annual rate. This economic environment is favorable for bond markets, and Austin mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.
The final two weeks of December have not been kind to mortgage rates. Stronger than expected economic data, comments from Fed officials, and a stock market rally all were negative for mortgage markets, and mortgage rates moved higher during the period.
Recently, Fed officials have sent mixed signals about how soon the Fed may need to begin to tighten monetary policy. Wednesday, the Fed's Hoenig said that the Fed should begin raising interest rates "sooner rather than later," and that this action wouldn't end the economic recovery. He explained that the Fed has a long way to go just to return to a neutral monetary stance and that it will take a while for the impact of rate hikes to be felt. Thursday evening, Bernanke held with the stated view that low rates will likely be justified for "an extended period", but he added that the Fed will be ready to remove stimulus as the economy recovers. When the Fed eventually indicates that it's ready to act, Austin mortgage rates will be likely to move higher.
After several weeks of economic announcements generally exceeding forecasts, weaker than expected labor and manufacturing data, along with comforting comments from Fed officials about inflation, helped mortgage markets this week. Reacting to the data, investors shifted funds out of the stock market and into bond markets, and mortgage rates ended the week at the lowest levels since May.
