With the market being so psycho and at historic lows in Austin mortgage rates, best to be careful. You never know if tomorrow will be Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde.
Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate. JPMorgan has the call at minus 90K and 9.9%, Barclays at Minus 75K and 9.8%, Wells Fargo at minus 80k and 9.7%, and Credit Suisse the outlier at minus 125K and 9.9%.
Speaking of unemployment, Friday’s number could be as weird as it gets. With the consensus call for job losses of 50K, a number of economists are talking about 100K in losses with John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, calling for losses of 250K. Blame it on the weather. With spreads so wide you could drive a truck through them, Friday’s print will be one volatile ride.
From a pure chart play, we would advise locking in your Austin mortgage rate. Trouble with that advice is stocks and all the global heartburn can put the chart on its head. Tough one to handicap. Given the high profile jobs number tomorrow, it’s best to be a live dog than a dead lion when it comes to your Austin mortgage rate!
