With the elections and the Fed meeting next week to hopefully clarify QE2, things could get wild. We also have the Employment report for October a week from tomorrow. Austin mortgage borrowers are advised to take advantage of any rate improvement we see as the skies have yet to clear.
Price action post auction has not done anything to help Austin mortgage pricing. Sell side orders are still on the heavy side with MBS still off 15/32’s. As I mentioned earlier, we don’t see this as a major trend change or a sentiment shift towards the bears.
Last month’s auction however was a disaster with only 23.9%. Technically, we’re right up against the down trend line. This is where the battle of bulls and bears will take place and the weapon of choice seems to be the 30 year bond auction outcome (12:00 cst).
First of all, the market had an “outside day up.” What this means is that we made a lower low than the previous day, only to close above yesterdays high level. In Austin mortgage terms, we had pricing at one time today that was worse than yesterdays only to close above yesterday's best level. Trust me, the pattern is bullish.
Word has it that Greek banks have asked the government to use the remaining 17 billion Euro of funds allocated to back up the country’s banking system to be put to work as a government guaranteed bond program. The move would allow for a better haircut when borrowing from the European Central Bank. Trouble is, Greece still need more money to float the country and skeptics are abound, still viewing them as the poster child of the PIGS nations.
Without the consumer back in the game, a double dip recession, led by housing is a real possibility. Politicians and the populous movement are angry about continuing anything associated with growing the government and adding to the deficit.
Volatility has jumped as sellers press the market lower. Could be hedging for tomorrow’s 30 year bond auction or just a distribution trade for the new issue 10’s but nonetheless, prices are worsening.
Given that fact that we closed above the 8 day, many bearish signals (ADX, Trend Intensity, etc.) have been neutralized, crippling the bears and reducing the probability of continued bearish trending. In other words, the light we were seeing “is” the end of the tunnel which should produce better mortgage pricing into Friday’s Employment release (7:30 am cst).
Overall, we feel that the housing market is stabilizing but will need to content with another wave of foreclosures as homeowners remain underwater and the loan modification programs to date have been a bust.
As we look through the forest to find a tree, the positive technical development today was that Trend Intensity turned neutral from bearish. Not huge you say but it’s baby steps, kinda like ‘What about Bob.” The study remains trend ready but with both bears and bulls getting the Rolling Stones treatment (No Satisfaction), expecting any new market moving trend to develop, good or bad, is unlikely soon. Prices now sit in the middle of the range and seem to be quite comfortable, typical of a market that can’t decide which way to go. Daily charts give sellers and edge but that’s 51/49 at best. Expect the market to tread water with spurts of volatility from time to time.
