Trouble with ADP is that they have a history of missing the number, and by huge margins more often than they get close. To them, within tolerance is 3 standard deviations!
As predicted, Friday’s bearish close, along with this week’s record 137 billion in treasury auction supply has kept the market under pressure as we begin a new week. 7 billion in 5 year tips will greet the screen today, followed by 44 billion of 2 year notes on Tuesday, 41 billion of 5 year notes on Wednesday, and 31 billion of 7 year notes on Thursday. This could give the market a bit of indigestion. Traders talk about “no shows at the lows”, meaning that buyers will not show up even at cheaper levels. We believe that a strong overseas bid will continue and with most of paper being shorter in duration, the auctions “should” be much ado about nothing.
The week ahead is shaping up to be a barn burner. Month end, Quarter end, and the Employment Report for September are just a few of the events that could rock our world.
From our technical view, the chart looks more like “crack the whip” than any type of symmetrical trading. Last Friday caught a bid from month end buying (portfolio extension needs), Monday gave it all back as stocks traded and closed above 1000 on the S & P chart, and today’s rally has been derailed by Pending Home Sales.
March 4, 2009 This morning’s ADP Employment Report, our first [...]
