The focus this week will be directed at President Obama’s State of the Union Address on Tuesday, the first FOMC meeting of 2011 on Wednesday, and the first release of fourth quarter GDP results on Friday.
In what looks to be a repeat of yesterday, stocks [...]
This market is hard to handicap. On one hand, Europe will not get out of the dog house anytime soon. On the other hand, our economy is stable, maybe not growing very fast but stable. We expect Austin mortgage rates to stay low into the foreseeable future with current levels being the top of the range (best levels we could see).
If our work (and that of others ) is correct, we would expect a larger bearish move (more selling/worsening mortgage pricing) in the days ahead. To avoid another leg down, we need to close below 3.74% on the 10 year note (end of day close). Best to keep both hands on the wheel.
Trouble is, every sector of the curve remains weak and cannot be trusted. Until we see a bottom (which we feel is close) you must stay on defense. Kind of a Yogi Berra thing, “it’s not over till it’s over.”
Hey what do you know, a little green on the screen! Case Shiller Home Price Index painted the screen with an improvement of 1.2% while the year on year figure was down 11.3%. The number were a bit better than consensus, showing signs of stability creeping back into the housing market. 17 of the 20 market surveyed showed positive price improvement with Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Cleveland the only decliners. Although the numbers are good, uncertainty with the 8K stimulus plan and continued high unemployment will need to be monitored.
