Just a quick note as the day (and the market) has been fast and furious. Earlier today, ADP estimated that job losses on the Friday Employment Report would total 371K. In their estimation, all sectors of the job market suffers declines. If their “guess” is accurate, manufacturing would have improved by nearly 50K but still have lost 90K. With the median expectation for 320K job losses, the ADP report is within one standard deviation, a measured miss that is the average for ADP. Given that it is on the low side, we are projecting job losses to be over the 320K consensus and more in line with ADP (370K). More on that tomorrow.
Since I’m tardy with this missive, I’ll get right to today’s trade. Early selloff followed by a nice reversal as stocks fell over 100 points. Since then, the back and forth teeter totter effect has been in play. Stocks go bid, bonds go south and vice versa. Currently, stocks are only down 28 points and mortgage backs/10 year note have taken a turn for the worse. MBS off a smooth 13/32’s. Hence the reasons for opening Austin mortgage pricing, then an Austin mortgage price improvement, and now worsening Austin mortgage pricing.
Seriously, the market is volatile and dangerous, closing near the lows of the day (highest yields) with good support in jeopardy of giving way.