We will want to see the market stay below 3.45% which correlates to the 8 day moving average. Any close above that yield will turn the market in favor of a higher mortgage rates

Just a note as we shut the market down for the day.  Stocks continued their run, up 185 points right into the close.  The 10 year note and mortgage backs suffered from mid-afternoon on, down 16/32’s on the note to yield 3.36% and off 11/32’s on MBS as the bell sounded.  The failure to build on earlier bullish probes is somewhat of a concern but by no means a reversal.  We will want to see the market stay below 3.45% which correlates to the 8 day moving average.  Any close above that yield will turn the market in favor of a higher mortgage rates.  For now, we feel this is a correction/consolidation in a neutral/bullish market and will be on track towards lower yields after stocks have their fun.

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