New day, same story. Sovereign debt remains the primary focus, taking stocks hostage for the fourth day in a row. Never mind that Q1 Productivity was up 3.6% while Unit Labor Costs fell 1.6%. Or that Weekly Unemployment Claims fell 7K to 444K. Even the Monster Employment index rose 8 points. The Greece fire has put a smoke screen in front of conventional wisdom, driving traders to safe haven investments such as treasuries, the dollar, and gold.
Today’s early trade pushed treasuries to higher yields and worsened mortgage pricing, but only slightly. That occurred on a flat to slightly higher open for the Dow. Currently, the big board is off 68 points as sellers are still looking for any strength to get out. Reasons being that as Greece is on the edge of the cliff, global slowing will occur or even worse, a default in the Euro zone that could really put a pinch on global credit and stock earnings.
Our mortgage back market opened off a tick or two but has recovered to unchanged levels. 10 year note trades a 3.52% yield. The tactical bias for today is neutral as we expect the chart to stay within yesterday’s highs and lows. Traders call this an “inside day”, typical structure on the day before a big risk event (Employment Report for April 7:30 am cst Friday). Overall conditions remain bullish but are over bought and need a stall or correction to bring their levels back into harmony.
With the Big Daddy of all data out tomorrow and the market rallying smartly into it, the risk reward for additional gains is possible but a low probability bet. With expectations for a positive jobs number tomorrow, it’s only a matter of time before we get over Greece and focus on economic fundamentals. We will discuss expectations for tomorrow’s jobs report later today. Take a little caution with you into tomorrow. Remember, it’s better to be a live dog than a dead lion!