Last Friday we talked about the “line in the sand”, one that the market needed to not cross. Maybe investors of fixed income products decided to re-read the past speech of Dallas Fed President Fisher who all but told his listeners that QE2 is needed and coming soon, just the dollar amount is “yet to be determined.”
No matter what the reason, traders respected chart patterns which projected good support, allowing for a nice little rally this morning. Buyers started the party in Tokyo and quickly transfered power to stateside traders, interested in buying 30 year bonds. Since the early gains, the market has been back and forth on light volume yet holding most of today’s gains. However, the caution flag is still out as the market has not been able to trade above the 8 day moving average. We really need a close above this level to find our comfort zone.
We see the set up as neutral, given a multitude of bearish divergences on one side and Fed Chief Bernanke and his dollar printing press on the other. Throw all the factors together and you can make a good case for the market and Austin mortgage pricing to stall unit early November’s elections and FOMC meeting.