The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee). The “Street” didn’t take kindly to comments regarding treasury asset sales, consideration of a .25 bps hike in the Discount Rate, and a general hawkish tone once they can determine that a recovery is “self sustaining”. The “headlines” unnerved traders, causing the 10 year note to drop ½ point in minutes. Although the 10 year and mortgage backs are set to close on the weak side, major support held. We are closing below the 21 day moving average for the first time since January 12th, a not so good sign. We need to be careful here as any close above 3.79% on the 10 year note will set a bearish trend in motion (currently 3.74%). For now, we are just testing the bottom of the range with sellers holding an edge. Best to stay defensive into tomorrow morning’s Weekly Claims release and PPI (inflation at the wholesale level).
- FOMC Minutes: Market Watchers React (blogs.wsj.com)