Initial Weekly Claims fell 19K, Continuing Claims dropped 45K, and Durable Goods dropped 1.1%. Month end hedge fund extensions and risk related worried and still in play as well. Taking the big picture view, Austin mortgage interest rates have adopted a soft housing and employment situation stateside, along with global debt and growth issues that just won’t go away.
With the 10 year note now trading at 3.09%, a level not seen since last April, many are talking about our market being “bubble-ishous”. The other contingent thinks bond prices are just “insane”. With the 10 year yield at levels not seen since 2008 and 1962, one would think that a correct is imminent. Quite possible but not a given. Technically, our chart work makes a case for 2.92% to 2.78% on the 10 year note. All depends on stocks and the economy. Even the FOMC “downgraded” the economy to underperform.
Early buying today has started to show signs of a new bullish trend, endorsed by almost every oscillator. The key to a new trend will be a close below 3.09% on the 10 year note. This will activate a break of the major double top which has been in place for over a year. “If” this happens, the next target will be 2.88%. Not to throw cold water on the bulls but we think this market is a little long in the tooth, pricing in as much bad news as one could imagine.
Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst. Something like a stock market rout or collapse of Greece. In English, the smart money will bet against this, at least for a corrective trade that could take the 10 year note back to 3.25%. Pricing was struck with MBS unchanged, now down 5/32’s. Trigger fingers are getting twitchy.
With Austin mortgage rates at or near historic lows, best bet is to take a little off the table before the market “potentially” picks your pocket. Careful out there.