10 year note pricing has not backed off much from the stealth rally on Friday as the note is only off 3/32’s as we speak. Mortgage backs are holding steady as well, virtually unchanged or up a 32nd depending on the coupon. Stocks are also on the plus side with the Dow plus 43 and the Naz up a dozen, rebounding nicely from Friday’s nasty Employment report. Seems to me the market is looking for a second round of stimulus, call is QE2 (quantitative easing 2). With many economists talking about the first round (of stimulus) running its course, opinions are all over the place for what comes next.
Tomorrow’s one day FOMC meeting will hold the key as any interest rate changes/policy changes will be released at 1:15 pm cst. Some feel the Fed will take a baby step towards purchasing more securities (treasuries) to keep interest rates low. Others talk more spending or tax cuts, infrastructure spending, a payroll tax holiday (like that one), and government backed guaranteed loans to small business.
Technically, it’s hard to find anything standing in the way of this bull. The chart shows you how Friday’s trade took out the trend line that has capped the market for the past month. Traders will now be looking a target of at least 2.75% – 2.78%. The only thing we see that could derail the move is 84 billion in auction paper (3’s, 10’s and 30 year bonds) coming this week. Keep in mind that the market has priced in a lot of bad news, even the high probability of a double dip. With that in mind and the fact we’re trading at or near historic low yields, best bet is for Austin borrowers to lock in today’s great Austin mortgage rates and move on down the road.