Meant to post this Sept. 4.
Nonfarm payrolls fell 216K, Unemployment rate jumps to 9.7%, and both June and July job losses were revised higher. At best, the report is “mixed” with optimists looking at the downward slope of job losses over the past 8 months and “realists” looking at the 9.7% unemployment rate and negative job growth as a continued drag on the consumer and GDP. Jobs were lost in all sectors except education and health care services, which added 52K. We missed our boggy due to less job losses in service sector employment (expected 100K/actual 80K) and construction (expected 75K/actual 65K). Hey, at least we were closer than Normura.
Reaction to the data was fast and furious post release, with wild swings in both bonds and stocks. Since the dust settled, the 10 year note is off 10/32’s (yield 3.37&), mortgage backs off 1/32nd, and stocks up a nickel. Pretty quiet on the western front. With the long weekend approaching, traders will have one foot out the door by noon. High probability that your capital markets group will too, thinking more about marinating the ice cubes than what’s on the screen. We expect, or are hoping for, a quiet, steady trading day as well. Next week the action will pick up as kids across the country head to school and first flight traders go back to work. For now, let’s call the market neutral with a slightly bullish bias for Austin mortgage pricing.