As we start a new week after a long weekend, quiet trading has been the mood for both bonds and stocks. Stocks are higher however, bouncing from severe oversold conditions and “no bad news” over the weekend. Rumor has it that bank stress tests in Europe are looking to be better than excepted, helping the banking sector both in Euro land and stateside do a bit better. Currently, the Dow is plus 136 while the Naz is up 30.
Bonds, notes and mortgage backs have held in there, even as stocks hold their gains. 10 year notes are plus 4/32’s and mortgage pricing is flat to plus 2/32’s. As we have mentioned in the past, Austin mortgage interest rates appear to be locked in a tight range, trading at or near the best levels we’ve seen in 14 months. Reasons being are the lack of employment growth in the US, soft housing, Europe feeling queasy, and China concerns over growth. Tough to find a reason for higher yields, worsening mortgage pricing well into the third quarter.
Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index fell to 53.8. The jobs component fell below 50 for the first time since December 2007. Adds fuel to our bias I just wrote about. The week ahead is light on news with Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims highlighting the week. Technically, notes and mortgage pricing will take their cue from stocks. That said, S&P futures are now breaking back above the neck line taken out last week. In English, stocks put in several negative sessions doing some technical damage. They are trying to reverse it this morning.
“If” they can hold gains, further upside (stock rally) will be in the cards. That should put pressure on mortgage pricing but not in a huge way. Look for a lack luster trade as we move into the shortened week.