Monthly Archives: October 2009

Record Auctions Produce Mixed Results

While daily volatility was high this week, Austin mortgage rates ended just slightly lower than last week. The primary factors influencing Austin mortgage rates were offsetting. The economic growth data released this week was stronger than expected, but inflation remained low. While the first two Treasury auctions produced impressive results, the final one was relatively weak. Continue reading

Google Maps Announces Real Estate Search

There’s a new option to search for real estate: click on “show search options” and select “real estate” from the drop-down. The search results come from Google Base. Google shows structured information about houses and lets you refine the results by price, number of bedrooms and bathrooms. Continue reading

Our bias will lean towards a range trade with follow through in either direction (better or worsening mortgage pricing) doubtful

Stocks had a great day, breaking a four day S & P losing streak. The Dow finished up 199 points and the Naz gained nearly 38 points on the day. Given the stock market trade, any gains in mortgage pricing will be more difficult to come by. That said, the market profile neutralized yesterday’s bullish structure but did not turn it negative. The extreme low (yield of 3.52% – going into the close at 3.49%) held with fast money buyers taking it off the lows, not to be revisited into the close. Downside trading was mixed but we did close above the session mode, a net positive. Into the end of the week/month, our bias will lean towards a range trade with follow through in either direction (better or worsening mortgage pricing) doubtful. Continue reading

Watch stocks, any close up 100 plus will keep the heat on MBS

This one had the tail of a German Shepherd (2.3 bps) versus that of a Rottweiler, adding to the lack of interest. Both the 10 year and MBS took it on the nose post auction. At one time, the note was down 1 point and MBS off 10/32’s. Watch stocks, any close up 100 plus will keep the heat on MBS. Continue reading

Update from the National Association of Realtors: Extending and Expanding the Tax Credit

Senate leaders of both parties, key Senate Finance Committee members and staff, and the homebuyer tax credit sponsors Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT, and Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA), have reached an agreement on extending and expanding the housing tax credit. However, right now, there is no agreement on how to attach this tax credit to the pending Unemployment Insurance bill, or whether to offer the tax credit agreement as an amendment to another bill, or whether to bring the agreement to the Senate floor and vote upon it as a separate, stand alone bill. Continue reading

Senators extend $8K tax credit for first-time homebuyers & offer $6,500 tax credit to buyers who have owned their current homes for at least 5 years

According to the Associated Press, Senators have agreed to extend the tax credit for first-time homebuyers and to offer a reduced credit to some repeat buyers. Reportedly, Senators agreed to extend the existing tax credit for first-time homebuyers while offering a reduced credit of up to $6,500 to buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years. Continue reading

Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next

Currently, the 10 year note is down 20/32’s (yield 3.49%), MBS down 6/32’s, and stocks up 75 points on the big board. Stocks will hold the key as to where Austin mortgage rates go next. The current pattern (stocks) has been for sellers to lean on the market when it rallies (5 out of the last 7 days). We will want to watch the late afternoon trade (from 2:00 to 3:00 cst) to see if they can hold today’s gains. Failure to do so will improve mortgage pricing while a positive close, especially 50 points or more, will put additional pressure on our stuff. Continue reading

Austin, TX: Record Home Affordability – Near Highest Level In 18 Years

Houses are the cheapest they’ve been since 1991. Bolstered by affordable interest rates and low prices, nationwide housing affordability during the second quarter of 2009 continued to hover near its highest level since the series began 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders (Aug. 19, 2009). You have the financial opportunity of a lifetime. Continue reading

Although the home price numbers are good, uncertainty with the 8K stimulus plan and continued high unemployment will need to be monitored

Hey what do you know, a little green on the screen! Case Shiller Home Price Index painted the screen with an improvement of 1.2% while the year on year figure was down 11.3%. The number were a bit better than consensus, showing signs of stability creeping back into the housing market. 17 of the 20 market surveyed showed positive price improvement with Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Cleveland the only decliners. Although the numbers are good, uncertainty with the 8K stimulus plan and continued high unemployment will need to be monitored. Continue reading

Austin Mortgage Market Update For the week of October 26, 2009

The week ended with the terrific news that Existing Home Sales shot UP 9.4% in September to a 5.57 million annual rate. This was almost twice the increase the consensus expected and a nice boost coming off the slight drop we saw in August. Best of all, the inventory is now down to a 7.8 month supply, getting us closer and closer to the 6-month level of a normal housing market. Continue reading