Tag Archives: trading

Play defense, Austin mortgage borrowers, as the light at the end of the tunnel is not the other side

October 15, 2010

Text book trading here as this baby is tracking the down trend line like a hunting dog. Good news is that we are at good support mentioned this morning. Play defense, Austin mortgage borrowers, as the light at the end of the tunnel is not the other side. Continue reading →

Daily oscillators are still posting positive readings and holding above midrange levels – all good things for those that want lower mortgages/better pricing

January 26, 2010

On the bright side, daily oscillators are still posting positive readings and holding above midrange levels. All good things for those that want lower mortgages/better pricing. Continue reading →

Expecting the market to move much in any direction is possible but probably not in the cards

December 14, 2009

With trading volume starting to fall off a cliff, expecting the market to move much in any direction is possible but probably not in the cards. Next week will be worse. Continue reading →

University of Michigan’s final October consumer confidence index was a touch higher than expected, but remains at recessionary levels

November 2, 2009

Bond prices rose on Friday as stocks sank in trading that was driven more by stock market technicals and concerns than by any other factor. Stocks had their worst week since early July. The University of Michigan’s final October consumer confidence index was a touch higher than expected than September’s level, but remains at recessionary levels. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index rose sharply to its highest level since December 2007 and beat expectations. The report is closely watched for clues to the national ISM index which was released today at a print of 55.7. This number was 3.1 points higher than the previous month’s reading and was higher than economists expected. Continue reading →

Austin Mortgage Market Update For the week of October 26, 2009

October 26, 2009

The week ended with the terrific news that Existing Home Sales shot UP 9.4% in September to a 5.57 million annual rate. This was almost twice the increase the consensus expected and a nice boost coming off the slight drop we saw in August. Best of all, the inventory is now down to a 7.8 month supply, getting us closer and closer to the 6-month level of a normal housing market. Continue reading →

We’ll stick with our neutral call, keeping one eye on a stock chart and the other on MBS

October 19, 2009

With most chart time frames in harmony, the future of interest rates will most likely follow the stock market’s lead. We’ll stick with our neutral call, keeping one eye on a stock chart and the other on MBS. Continue reading →

Potential rate lock selling to hedge upcoming corporate bond issues could weigh on the market, effecting Austin mortgage pricing in a negative way

October 16, 2009

Little is seen to change the afternoon trade with the exception of potential rate lock selling to hedge upcoming corporate bond issues. If this occurred, it would weigh on the market, effecting Austin mortgage pricing in a negative way. Continue reading →

By nature the pattern is bearish and suggests higher interest rates, worsening Austin mortgage pricing presents the higher probability

October 15, 2009

Market action, as I mentioned earlier has been a two way street. With earning season (stocks) in full swing, volatility has really picked up in both equities and bonds. Mortgage backs have been the worst performer on the day with spreads to treasuries widening as sellers continue to lean on the market. Currently, the 10 year note is off 7/32’s (yield 3.45%), MBS off 9/32’s, and stocks off only 1 point on the big board. Technically, we are trading a lower lows, lower highs type of pattern. By nature it is bearish and suggests higher interest rates, worsening Austin mortgage pricing present the higher probability. We will want to pay close attention the 10 year yield as it approaches 3.48% – 3.50%. That level is key support and “should” provide a near term bottom, followed by a rebound. If that level does not hold, MBS could feel another ½ point of pain. Play defense as the trend is not your friend! Continue reading →

Earlier today, Consumer Income hit the skids, falling 1.3% while Spending rose .4%. The Income component was the largest monthly decline since January 2005. Pure and simple, it reflects declining wage and salary disbursements.

August 4, 2009

From our technical view, the chart looks more like “crack the whip” than any type of symmetrical trading. Last Friday caught a bid from month end buying (portfolio extension needs), Monday gave it all back as stocks traded and closed above 1000 on the S & P chart, and today’s rally has been derailed by Pending Home Sales. Continue reading →

It’s been all about stocks today as earnings season (Q2) is in full swing

July 13, 2009

It’s been all about stocks today as earnings season (Q2) is in full swing. Earlier Today, bank analyst Meredith Whiney, raised her outlook on most banks due to interest rate spreads, mortgage originations, and Safe Harbor loan modifications. She call … Continue reading →