Tag Archives: traders

Throw all the factors together and you can make a good case for the market and Austin mortgage pricing to stall unit early November’s elections and FOMC meeting

October 18, 2010

We see the set up as neutral, given a multitude of bearish divergences on one side and Fed Chief Bernanke and his dollar printing press on the other. Throw all the factors together and you can make a good case for the market and Austin mortgage pricing to stall unit early November’s elections and FOMC meeting. Continue reading →

Call it neutral/bearish and not a market to throw caution to the wind

October 15, 2010

Next week will be the true test, one that we would expect will see the market trade sideways to a little better (slightly improving mortgage pricing). Overall, we think this is the low probability trade as QE2, even though it is fully priced in, is a force to be reckoned with. When the Government is the buyer of choice, most follow the ant age, “Don’t fight the Fed.” Continue reading →

Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to lock in their interest rate

September 2, 2010

Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to lock in their interest rate. It just makes cents (and dollars too). Expect the day to be one of “squaring up” for traders in both bonds and stocks, with not much movement seen from current levels. Continue reading →

High probability of a worsening Austin mortgage price change

July 13, 2010

High probability of a worsening Austin mortgage price change. We see the tactical bias as being defensive with conditions and chart work pointing to a more bearish outcome. Borrowers are advised to stay with this market and don’t let it put you to sleep. It could be costly. Continue reading →

USDA UPDATE: In a nut shell, the USDA program is out of money (except for disaster funds in a few areas)

May 18, 2010

USDA UPDATE: In a nut shell, the USDA program is out of money (except for disaster funds in a few areas). The Senate now has three competing bills so the work out process has begun. Nothing scheduled on the Senate floor so this could take some time. USDA issued guidance stating that they would issue condition commitments so we could proceed with the loan process but not close until the program was funded. USDA has now pulled that guidance to issue conditional commitments. As you can see, this is a mess. Investors such as Chase, etc. will not take locks unless you have a conditional commitment or are in a county that has adequate disaster funds available as they see this as hedging a “phantom” pipeline. Continue reading →

With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur

March 24, 2010

Today’s day-end close will be very important. We need to hold 116 22/64th on the futures chart (yield equivalent is 3.75%) to feel better about the range trade continuing. With current levels at 3.77%, the market needs to boot strap itself back together or further downside (worsening mortgage pricing) will occur. Continue reading →

Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate

March 4, 2010

Using one standard deviation and a dart board, our bias is for 100k in job losses and a 9.9% unemployment rate. JPMorgan has the call at minus 90K and 9.9%, Barclays at Minus 75K and 9.8%, Wells Fargo at minus 80k and 9.7%, and Credit Suisse the outlier at minus 125K and 9.9%. Continue reading →

The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee)

February 17, 2010

The market was doing just fine until the headlines broke the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting (Fed Open Market Committee). The “Street” didn’t take kindly to comments regarding treasury asset sales, consideration of a .25 bps hike in the Discount Rate, and a general hawkish tone once they can determine that a recovery is “self sustaining”. Continue reading →

The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January

February 1, 2010

The lack of month end buying and rebounding stocks has pinched treasury and mortgage pricing this morning. 10 year notes are off 12/32’s (yield 3.65%), mortgage backs off 6/32’s, and stocks are up 85 on the big board. The week ahead will be loaded with first tier data including everything from Construction Spending, Housing numbers, and the Employment Report for January. Continue reading →

With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day

January 27, 2010

With 15 minutes to go in cash Treasury/MBS trading, the market is going out on the lows (highest yields/worst mortgage pricing) of the day. Fed Governor Hoenig’s dissent looks to us like an interest rate protest or maybe it’s the first vote/trial balloon. Continue reading →