Stocks are not the reason as we are off 139 points on the big board.  PPI, inflation at the wholesale level, is not the culprit either as the print was up .4% headline and down .6% ex-autos, giving some cover for the Fed’s pressing QE2.  October Industrial production hung an egg (unchanged) and the National Association of Home Builders Index was up slightly yet not very impressive.  Even the Fed buying 5.4 billion in paper can’t plug the dam.

What you have here is a mentality surrounding QE2 that is worried about inflation, economic growth, Federal balance sheets, and was priced in “before” the operation took place.  Now we have fast money accounts (trading accounts, hedge funds, money managers, etc.) pressing the trade, blowing through technical support levels like a tsunami.  Studies are bearish on every time frame.

Given the economic backdrop (high unemployment, etc.) we feel this move is close to a bottom.  Trouble is, picking bottoms are like catching falling knifes, hard to do without some pain.  Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to use the float down option (“option to lower your interest rate one time”) to guard against a reversal (rally).

Markets like this are dangerous and sometime do not follow logic.  If it looks like a bear and walks like a bear, it probably is a bear.

Currency wars is what this is all about and the Fed is getting exactly what it hoped for, consumer expectations of rising inflation to shut the door on deflation.  This was evidenced in last week’s Michigan Sentiment Survey.  With QE2 priced in “before” it happened and the negative connotations mentioned above, treasuries have continued to be slaughtered, sending credit costs higher, doing nothing to stimulate the economy.  Look for the Fed to try and talk rates back down.

So far today, that hasn’t been the case as Uncle Sam bought about 8 billion in paper with little to no effect.  10’s are trading at 2.85%, down 22/32’s on the day.  Mortgage backs are off 9/32’s and stocks are up 65 on the big board.

Retail Sales hit the tape up 1.2%, a touch better than expected.  Stripping out autos, the index was plus .4%.  Business inventories/Sales were also released, up .9% and up .5% respectfully.  The week ahead is a doozy, starting with inflation numbers (PPI and CPI) over the next two days.

Technically, the selling today has taken the chart below the October lows (high yield mark) and then rebounded ever so slightly.  Bearish readings and Trend Intensity are evident on every chart time frame.  The best we can hope for is that the October low will hold (good so far) and the market will begin to repair itself.  Odds are good for a rally based on oversold conditions along.  Just the same, this is not a market to mess with.  Until there is a sea change in the way traders view QE2, this version of Sonny and Cher’s “the beat goes on” will continue.

The New York Fed (Empire State) Manufacturing report was also released, jumping 12 points to 15.7.  Both new shipments and orders improved at the fastest pace since June.  Overall, the factory sector in NY seems to be on the mend.

Last but not least, we got a look at the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey which declined from 68.2 to 67.9.  Current conditions did the damage, falling 5.4 points.  Future expectations did a little better, up 4 points for the month.  Big Ben, printing press supervisor for the Federal Reserve was speaking in bean town this morning.  He all but assured the market of QE2 coming with details most likely presented at their November 2^nd/3^rd meeting.

The 10 year note, 30 year bond, and mortgage backs have been taking a beating.  The note is currently of 18/32’s.  Mortgage backs continue to slide, now off 7/32’s.  Stocks are a mixed bag and no help to bonds.  Dow off 46 points, Naz up 21 points on Google’s earnings.  That stock is up 58 bucks!

From our perspective, the market has fully priced in QE2 and has shifted the focus to a weak dollar and indigestion from 66 billion of auction paper that is now underwater.  Call the market neutral/bearish with good support nearby.  As we have preached all week, defense is your friend, Austin mortgage borrowers, and the exclusive float down option from Max Leaman is a no brainer.  We’ll try to wrap it up later today.

Weekly Unemployment Claims were also on the docket, rising 13K to 462K.  Just when we though the employment picture looked to be improving, reality is telling us that a sideways move with little improvement is probably the correct call.  Continuing Claims were the bright spot, falling 112K to the lowest level since November 2008.  Yesterday’s price action was somewhat of a surprise as late in the day, notes, bonds, and mortgage backs made a comeback.  Not sure why, given an as expected 10 year note auction and positive stock market.

Seems as though the reason has to do with QE2, the 600 pound quantitative easing gorilla that is still in the picture.  Tells us two things; one is that the market will (should) be supported on pullbacks until details are released.  Two, the market is trading only on this, so to speak its a one trick pony.  Austin mortgage borrowers need to be careful.

Currently, the 10 year note is off 5/32’s, mortgage backs are down 3/32’s, and stocks are off 20 something on the Dow.  Yesterday, I talked about the Elliott Wave chart and the high probability of a new A wave beginning.  Notice how the uptrend has been broken yet needs confirmation.  Now look at the bearish cross on the RSI oscillator.  These are good early signals of a market that is in transition, moving from bullish to neutral/consolidative or possible bearish given a shift in economic fundamentals.  Similar patterns are showing up on the candlestick chart.

Austin mortgage borrowers: best to take a conservative approach given the amount of volatility we expect.

With both retail and fast money accounts quiet, pricing reflects much of the same.  10 year notes are up 1/32^nd, current coupon mortgage backs up 1/32^nd, and stocks down 20 points on the big board.  The week ahead will feature Import Prices tomorrow, Weekly Unemployment Claims and inflation data (PPI) on Thursday, and CPI (inflation at the consumer level), Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, and Michigan Sentiment Survey on Friday.

Currently, the best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers: don’t take historic low Austin mortgage rates for granted.

Spain seems to be in the hunt as well with Spaniards and Germans locked in a war of words.  Credit spreads throughout Europe blew out once again, keeping global markets trapped between hope and fear.  With quarter end/mid-year end approaching, illiquid conditions and lower volume are starting to take hold.  We can expect this back and forth, headline trending action to continue albeit at a less volatile pace.

Currently, the 10 year note is plus 6/32’s (yield 3.29%), mortgage backs plus 3/32’s, and stocks unchanged on the big board.  Technically, we’re looking to sell strength into month end, especially if stocks hold their head up.  Range on the note seems to be 3.37% to 3.25% (currently 3.29%).  Chart wise, we’re sitting on the 200 day simple moving average with sellers in charge so far today.  This will keep the bias for more of a bearish trade. Stocks however could become very supportive for bonds, notes and Austin mortgage pricing.  Reason being is the number of pre-release guidance on a number of stocks reporting that revenues, etc. will be short of expectations.  Early July (2^nd quarter earnings) will be crucial for stock market direction and Austin mortgage pricing, helping us to sort out whether the double dip is economic reality or only at Braums.

“ I met them at the Treasury store, they told me that they were bad, but I knew they were really glad, that’s why I fell for the Leader of the Pack”.

Treasuries are the big dog on the global market with traders from all corners of world running to them for safety.  Take for example the Treasury International Capital Flows (TIC Index) which measures the purchases of our Treasuries by foreign entities.  In March alone, 108.4 billion were bought, making it the instrument of choice as global debt issues and stock market roller coasters rule the day.  PPI, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, hit the tape with a benign reading of minus .1% headline and a core print (ex-food and energy) of plus .2%.  Nothing to be scared of here and if anything, a deflationary trend may be setting up due to the global slowdown in Europe.

April Housing Starts also hit the tape, up 5.8% to 672K units.  Not bad except when you look at new Building Permits which dropped 11%.  Still tough sledding for the builders out there.  10 year trading has been volatile this morning as we opened in the red (down 12/32’s) with mortgage backs off 5/32’s.  Stocks have worked their way off the early morning highs ( opened up 80 now up 47), helping treasuries and mortgage backs to boot strap themselves back to unchanged.

USDA UPDATE: In a nut shell, the USDA program is out of money (except for disaster funds in a few areas).  The Senate now has three competing bills so the work out process has begun.  Nothing scheduled on the Senate floor so this could take some time.  USDA issued guidance stating that they would issue condition commitments so we could proceed with the loan process but not close until the program was funded.  USDA has now pulled that guidance to issue conditional commitments.  As you can see, this is a mess.  Investors such as Chase, etc. will not take locks unless you have a conditional commitment or are in a county that has adequate disaster funds available as they see this as hedging a “phantom” pipeline.

Have questions about USDA funds? Call me (512) 293-1239.

Weekly Unemployment Claims were also released, posting a drop of 24K.  The level however remains stubbornly high at 456K, an indication that it will take some time to turn this Titanic around.  Existing Home Sales, a piece of data near and dear to our hearts rose 6.8% to 5.35 million annualized.  Inventory rose as well, up 1.5% which represents 8 months of supply.  With the 8K buyers credit saying adios later this month, long term projections for a housing recovery are murky.  We shall see.

Last but not least was the FHFA Purchase only House Price Index.  Overall, the index was off .2% in February and down 3.4% year on year.  Prices declined in the South Atlantic, New England, and West North Central areas while modest increases were seen in the Middle Atlantic, Pacific, and West South Central regions.  High inventory levels due to foreclosures will continue to put this index under pressure.

Earlier today, treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in a month as Greece continues to slip into the ocean.  Yields on Greek 2 year notes are now over 11% as their yield curve inverts.  That’s the technical term for going on life support before someone pulls the plug.  Stocks are also in the soup, down 74 points on the Dow.  A couple of missed earnings reports and a sack of rotten Gyros did the trick.

Fixed income products (notes, bonds, and mortgage backs) are on a different page with yields falling/mortgage pricing improving on a continued and heightening sovereign debt crisis.  Yields on the Greek 10 year note are over 8.0% as the German Finance Minister expects the country to ask for aid.  He also hints that “creditors may need to assume some of the risk”.  As you can see, we have stocks and their earnings along with bonds and their flight to quality bid both driving the rally bus.

No economic news today.  That will change tomorrow with Weekly Claims, PPI (inflation at the wholesale level), Existing Home Sales, and the House Price Index all on the leader board.  Out right money flows or price action has been light and two way.  We are not seeing the volume in notes and mortgage backs to give us confidence in a continued rally.  That said, we do not expect much of a pullback either.

Currently, the 10 year note is up 10/32’s to yield 3.76%, very close to our range high (low yield) expectations of 3.75%.  Mortgage backs are plus 4/32’s on the day.  Stocks are up a baker’s dozen on the big board as very overbought conditions are in a dog fight with stellar 1^st quarter earnings.  Looks like one of those rare days when everyone is happy.

For better or worse, Fed policy, as dictated in yesterday’s meeting, will keep the bond market stuck in a range.  Given the supply/demand issues with quantitative easing, our mortgage pricing we have seen over the past month could continue for weeks.  On one hand we have the Fed stopping its purchase of mortgage backs at the end of the month.  They have been buying 10 billion a week.  On the other side, the market has built up a sizable short position in MBS from both the portfolio side and the Fannie/Freddie buy back that will last until August.

As we mentioned yesterday, all the Fed can do is manage their way to the end game, looking for the private sector to pick up steam so we can get back to “normal”.  Earlier today, PPI, inflation at the wholesale level, fell .6% headline while the core index (ex-food and energy) rose .1%.  This is the largest decline in seven months.  Energy prices were the heavy hitter, falling 2.9% with gasoline prices down 7.4%.  Inflation by any standard is a non-issue given this data.  Fed Chief Ben Bernanke will be on the hill today, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee.

Currently, everyone is wearing green as the 10 year note is up 2/32’s (3.64% yield), MBS up 1/32^nd, and stocks up 30 something on the big board.  Technically, the 10 year note retested the peak set on February 5^th, pulled back a little, but still trades in the upper end of the range.  The trade doesn’t seem to have a lot of momentum, telling us that this is more about short covering (traders who bought the market now selling) than it is about new buyers coming into the market.  Stocks are at a crossroads as well, grinding higher in what looks like a gravity defying move.

“If” the health care bill comes to a vote this week and passes, stocks could very well change their tune.  Bottom line here is that most markets are neutral, waiting for something to fuel a trend change.