Overall, we see continued low Austin interest rates on mortgages and historically low yields on treasuries well into the 4^th quarter.  The market is however forming a huge bond bubble that will someday create a massive correction.  That day is not today or tomorrow.

Technically, the rally from yesterday’s lows will add support towards further advancement (better pricing).  Stability at the 8 day moving average is supportive as well.  Oscillators are telling a different story.  One that reflects a lack of conviction to the bullish case.  In other words, the bull is due a nap.

Call the market at value, not expecting much movement either way.   Maybe early 2011 we’ll see the economic winds change direction.  We’ll wrap this up as the ice cubes marinate later today.

Both bonds and stocks finished on the plus side today.  Not bad considering another batch of soft economic data and it being Friday the 13^th.  Speaking of data and events, the entire week was glooming starting with the Fed admitting (in so many words) that a second round of treasury buying is needed, Productivity slipping, Weekly Unemployment Claims rising, Retail Sales up but below forecast, CPI a non-event, Michigan Sentiment better but still below 70, and the Philly Fed downgrading their outlook for that region.  No wonder stocks took it on the chip and bonds, notes, and mortgage backs look like the Eveready bunny.

After yesterday’s selling, the 10 year note rebounded nicely, up 15/32’s on the day.  The week is ending with all time frames, daily, weekly, and monthly looking like 3 bulls in a china shop.  All ready for continued action.  Conditions favor continued bullish price action (Austin mortgage price improvement) but probably at a slower pace.  Reason being is that we’re in the 10^th consecutive week of positive price action on the weekly chart.  Something that is rare to see (8 weeks or more).

With so much doom and gloom built in, the sledding towards lower yield will become more difficult.  Just the same, the trend will be persistent and keep the market neutral worst case into next week.  Only a reversal in stock or economic sentiment will get in front of this bull.

First on DuPont; all divisions of their business has double digits gains and revised guidance higher for the 3^rd and 4^th quarter.  Even their overseas sales were up over 30%.  Not bad.

Next came the housing numbers, up 4.6% on the 20 city index and up 5.4% on the 10 city index.  Charlotte and Las Vegas were the only not so bright spots across the county.  After the release of this dynamic duo, optimism started to spread.  Even the Euro zone banks (Deutsche in particular) seemed to be improving with the German Banking giant reporting a 6.2% gain in net profits.

Just as the light at the end of the tunnel got brighter, Consumer Confidence hit the screen, down more than expected to 50.4. The 4 point decline points to deteriorating future expectations and continued job worries.  The Richmond Fed survey hit about the same time, piling on as the index fell 7 points.  After that pair, stocks dropped and bonds/notes/ and mortgage backs made a comeback to unchanged.  With volatility what it is, the numbes are changing once again.

Stocks are currently plus 25 points, 10 year notes down 15/32’s, and mortgage backs (low note rates) are off 4/32’s while slightly higher rates are off 2/32^nd.  Technically, we see caution in the charts, especially ahead of the 12:00 cst 2 year note auction.  Every time we try to rally we get low volume and no follow through.  Tell tale sign that the market is neutral best case.  On the positive side, we are at good support, a target we’ve been looking for as the market reversed (good support is 3.05% to 3.08%).  Given all of the above, our bias is neutral/defensive, waiting to see what level of participation gets involved on the 2 year note auction.

Keep in mind that we have 39 billion of 5 year notes tomorrow and 29 billion of 7’s on Thursday’s auction block.  We anticipate pressure on mortgage pricing until we get though all the supply (auctions).  At that time, expectations are for the market to work it’s way back into the middle of the range (improve pricing) as Austin mortgage interest rates will continue to stay low.  Slow employment growth, soft housing, and weak consumer confidence, in our opinion, trump good earnings and future revenue growth on blue chip companies that continue to hoard cash.  Austin mortgage borrowers are encouraged to lay a little defense until the dust settles Thursday afternoon.

Then along came New Home Sales, expected to be 320K annualized units.  The print was much better than that, up 24% to 330K units.  Stocks got another boost (now up 68 on the big board) as fixed income instruments (such as mortgage backs) dipped a little deeper.  Currently, the 10 year note is off 10/32’s (yield 3.03%) while MBS are off 4/32’s (tighter spreads which is good).  We also had the Chicago Fed National Activity Index out, which dropped .94 to its worst level since October.  Manufacturing output, or the lack thereof, did the trick.

Fast money is selling the long end of the curve, dragging the 10 year note along with it.  Not a lot of downside is expected from here.  The week ahead will feature Case Shiller Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, Weekly Claims, and GDP on Friday.  Good week for data and market moving volatility.  For the week ahead, we see the market weaving and bobbing with a neutral/bearish type bias as investors will be looking to buy treasuries at yields slightly higher than current.  We still like the market long term as the detours are everywhere.

Short term, Austin mortgage borrowers are encouragerd to stay defensive.

The market, whether it be stocks or bonds will turn when the last one buys or sells.  Putting this nonsense into something useful for all of you, we believe a top or low yield mark is near.  Reasons being are low volume rallies in treasuries and widening spreads in mortgage backs.  Today for example, the 10 year note closed up 15/32’s (yield 2.93%) yet mortgage backs finished the day plus 3/32’s.  I don’t like that risk reward.  Next is a set of divergences that are starting to show up on hourly 10 year note charts.  Nothing huge but just maybe the market is getting a little stretched.

Great Austin mortgage rates should be with us well into the 3^rd quarter or until you see strong hands get back into stocks or the employment picture start to improve.  Neither seem to be next week’s story.  As for me, my fingers are tired, needing to grab a cold glass of the grape to help them heal!  Have a great weekend.

Alcoa kicks it off with their release due out after the closing bell.  Bonds, notes, and mortgage produce seem to be in a reactive mode, trapped between financial crisis, economic challenges ahead, government regulation, and regulative groups that will take on a life of their own.  Fed Chief Bernanke was on the biscuits and gravy circuit this morning, talking about small business having access to credit being “crucial” given that this sector employs one half of all Americans and accounts for 60% of gross job creation.

35 billion of 3 year notes just crossed the block at 1.055% with 41% going to indirect bidders (low side). The bid to cover was 3.20%, beating the average of 3.05%.  21 billion of 10 year notes will come tomorrow and then 13 billion of 30 year bonds on Wednesday.  Should not be a problem to get rid of the paper.  Technically, the market tested the 38% retracement level last Thursday and bounced, suggesting that the move was corrective in nature.  Daily studies however, are not positioned to endorse a new rally, instead projecting a “trendless” period of time.  What this tells us is that we will continue to trade the small range that has been with us for a couple weeks now, swinging from high to low, low to high depending on stocks and ‘headlines”.

Nothing huge here as we see Austin mortgage rates remaining low well into the third quarter.

Bonds, notes and mortgage backs have held in there, even as stocks hold their gains.  10 year notes are plus 4/32’s and mortgage pricing is flat to plus 2/32’s.  As we have mentioned in the past, Austin mortgage interest rates appear to be locked in a tight range, trading at or near the best levels we’ve seen in 14 months.  Reasons being are the lack of employment growth in the US, soft housing, Europe feeling queasy, and China concerns over growth.  Tough to find a reason for higher yields, worsening mortgage pricing well into the third quarter.

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index fell to 53.8.  The jobs component fell below 50 for the first time since December 2007.  Adds fuel to our bias I just wrote about.  The week ahead is light on news with Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims highlighting the week.  Technically, notes and mortgage pricing will take their cue from stocks.  That said, S&P futures are now breaking back above the neck  line taken out last week.  In English, stocks put in several negative sessions doing some technical damage.  They are trying to reverse it this morning.

“If” they can hold gains, further upside (stock rally) will be in the cards.  That should put pressure on mortgage pricing but not in a huge way.  Look for a lack luster trade as we move into the shortened week.

The tactical bias is still a bullish one as traders look to buy the dip into month end/quarter end extension needs.  ADP Jobs expectations hit the tape plus 13k for June, well below the consensus call of plus 60K.  ADP estimates that manufacturing gained 16K, goods producing jobs lost 17K, and services jobs rose 30K.  Once again, small business jobs growth produced the bulk of the services sector jobs.  Expectations for Friday’s Employment Report are still looking for a loss of 110K.  Not a pretty picture.  Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was also released, dipping slightly to 59.1.  The number was right on expectations.

For now, it looks like fast money is taking profits on the longer end of the curve (10’s through 30’s) as the note dips below 3.0%.  Real money buyers are in the mix, picking up most of what’s out there for sale.  With the contagion in Europe and domestic housing/employment woes in vogue, it’s hard to see the market doing much of anything.  The chart reveals much of the same.  Stalls have held above support as higher highs and higher lows are being produced.  Overall supportive but just the same, the market has come a long way in short period of time.  Some type of consolidation would not be a surprise at all.  Currently, mortgage backs are off 6/32’s.

Odds of a worsening Austin mortgage price change are starting to rise.  Be careful out there.