Austin Mortgage Blog

Posts Tagged ‘mortgage backed securities’

Austin Mortgage rates moved even lower during the week

Austin Mortgage rates moved even lower during the week, as uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery has increased investor demand for relatively safer assets such as government guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Fed Chairman acknowledged during the week that the economic outlook is even more difficult than usual to predict right now. Uncertain economic growth with low inflation is a favorable environment for Austin mortgage rates.

In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Fed Chief Bernanke described the economic outlook as “unusually uncertain”. According to Bernanke, this is the worst labor market since the Great Depression, and it is recovering more slowly than expected. Still, the Fed forecasts modest economic growth in 2010 with low inflation. Important for mortgage rates, Bernanke expressed reluctance to provide further monetary stimulus, unless the economy falters badly. He suggested that the upside of additional Fed actions may be limited, while the downside is that it would raise future inflation expectations.

In the housing sector, June Existing Home Sales declined 5% from strong May levels to an annual rate of 5.37M units, which was well above the consensus forecast of 5.10M. Existing sales were 10% higher than one year ago. First-time buyers accounted for 43% of existing home sales in June. Existing home sales have been helped in recent months by the homebuyer tax credit. Even with the end of the tax credit, though, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects annual existing home sales to increase in 2010 and to rise further in 2011.

Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst

Initial Weekly Claims fell 19K, Continuing Claims dropped 45K, and Durable Goods dropped 1.1%.  Month end hedge fund extensions and risk related worried and still in play as well.  Taking the big picture view, Austin mortgage interest rates have adopted a soft housing and employment situation stateside, along with global debt and growth issues that just won’t go away.

With the 10 year note now trading at 3.09%, a level not seen since last April, many are talking about our market being “bubble-ishous”.  The other contingent thinks bond prices are just “insane”.  With the 10 year yield at levels not seen since 2008 and 1962, one would think that a correct is imminent.  Quite possible but not a given.  Technically, our chart work makes a case for 2.92% to 2.78% on the 10 year note.  All depends on stocks and the economy.  Even the FOMC “downgraded” the economy to underperform.

Early buying today has started to show signs of a new bullish trend, endorsed by almost every oscillator.  The key to a new trend will be a close below 3.09% on the 10 year note.  This will activate a break of the major double top which has been in place for over a year.  “If” this happens, the next target will be 2.88%.  Not to throw cold water on the bulls but we think this market is a little long in the tooth, pricing in as much bad news as one could imagine.

Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst.  Something like a stock market rout or collapse of Greece.  In English, the smart money will bet against this, at least for a corrective trade that could take the 10 year note back to 3.25%.  Pricing was struck with MBS unchanged, now down 5/32’s. Trigger fingers are getting twitchy.

With Austin mortgage rates at or near historic lows, best bet is to take a little off the table before the market “potentially” picks your pocket. Careful out there.

Worries about European banks, UK austerity measures, US Housing, and the beginning of a two day FOMC meeting are all on today’s marquee

Worries about European banks, UK austerity measures, US Housing, and the beginning of a two day FOMC meeting are all on today’s marquee.  Stress tests and downgrades on banks across the pond got the early morning trade going.  Housing, as in Existing Home Sales, piled on to the gloom as the index fell to 5.66 million units, well below analysis’s expectations.  They were actually looking for an increase to 6.12 million.  Sales held steady in the Midwest, rose a touch in the South, jumped to 1.29 million in the West, and fell like a rock in the Northeast.  Pending Home Sales surprised on the upside, rising 6.0%.  New Home Sales (recorded at contract signing) jumped 14.8%, leaving many to scratch their heads wondering what happened to the Existing Sales numbers.  The divergence is most likely buried in the last dash for 8K buyers credit program which will shake out in the next 60 days.

FHFA (home price index) was plus .8% in April, reversing a two month slide.  On balance, housing looks to be stable but guarded.  Pimco strategist, Richard Clarida is on the wire talking about the Fed changing their language in tomorrow’s policy statement.  The change is regarding the economy as “sluggish” from stable, noting that since April, world and US economies have softened.  We have treasury paper coming to auction as well.  2’s today, 5’s tomorrow, and the 7 year note on Thursday.  Shouldn’t be a problem here.

We also got a peek at early predictions of month end extension needs.  Those are for money funds, etc. that much adjust to meet the Barclay’s index.  Extension needs for June look to be a bit larger than normal with the treasury complex needing to add .6 years and MBS .10 years.  In a nut shell, this will create buying in fixed income, adding support to Austin mortgage pricing.  Technically, the bias is neutral looking to buy weakness and sell strength.  Nothing new here as this has been the trend for the past several sessions.

Global Economic News Pushes Up Mortgage Rates

Global economic news influenced United States mortgage markets this week. While the domestic data released during the week was mixed, an improved economic outlook in many other countries was unfavorable for bond markets. As a result, Austin mortgage rates ended the week a little higher. In recent weeks, Austin mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest levels in decades. This has occurred, in part, due to the economic troubles in Europe, which reduced the willingness of investors to hold risky assets such as stocks. During periods of uncertainty, it’s common for investors to seek a higher level of relatively safer assets, including United States mortgage backed securities (MBS). On Thursday, however, a series of global headlines from Europe, Asia, and Australia contained positive news for economic growth, which caused investors to move back toward riskier assets and out of bonds. The stock market rallied, and Austin mortgage rates moved higher. On Thursday, lawmakers introduced a proposal which, if passed, will extend the “close-by” deadline to receive the home buyer tax credit from June 30 to September 30. The legislation doesn’t affect who may qualify for the tax credit. To qualify, you still must have signed a contract by April 30, but it will relieve some of the pressure to close by June 30. Buyers who had not expected to close by June 30 may now be able to qualify.

Into the close, stocks (Dow and Naz) on the big board are making a comeback, down 87 points

Just a heads up as the market is on the move.  Into the close, stocks (Dow and Naz) on the big board are making a comeback, down 87 points.  Naz is off 18 points, cutting its losses in half.  With the Dow down nearly 300 at one time, the reversal seems to have legs.  We also have 45 minutes to go so anything can  happen.  More importantly, the 10 year note and mortgage backed securities are starting to dip.  The 10 year note has cut its gains in half on the day.

Greek Troubles Overshadow Strong Data

Despite stronger than expected economic data, the financial situation in Greece held the greatest influence on mortgage rates this week. A flight to quality and prospects of slower economic growth in Europe were favorable for mortgage markets and negative for the stock market, and Austin mortgage rates ended the week lower.

Global financial markets remained focused on the economic troubles of Greece. Greek workers responded to proposed austerity measures with strikes and riots, and investors grew increasingly concerned that other smaller European countries will face similar problems cutting their budget deficits. As a result, US mortgage markets were helped in two primary ways. First, in response to the uncertainty in Europe, investors shifted funds to safer investments, including US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Second, investors expect that continued economic turmoil in Europe will reduce US exports to the region, slowing US economic growth and reducing inflationary pressures. Increased demand for MBS and lower future inflation are both positive for mortgage markets.

The April Employment report exceeded expectations in nearly every area. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 290K jobs in April, the most since March 2006, and the data from prior months was revised higher by an additional 121K. The April figures include 66K temporary census employees hired by the government, but this was fewer than expected. The manufacturing sector added the most jobs since 1998. The Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%, but that was due to unexpectedly large growth in the labor force as more people began to seek jobs.

No Austin mortgage rate change is expected but watch the FOMC policy statement closely

Although the Greek thing is still a mess, the IMF, etc. seems to be putting together a package of 100 to 120 billion in aid.  Market reaction has put pressure on treasuries and MBS.  On a side note, the Greek 2 year note traded over 17% this morning and the Greek Air Force called in sick today, protesting pay cuts.  Spend more than you make and then ask for a raise, they just don’t get it.  Additional pricing pressure is happening due to the noon (cst) 5 year note auction.  42 billion of the issue has traders on edge after yesterday’s sloppy 2 year deal.  We also have the FOMC announcement today at 1:15 pm cst.  No Austin mortgage rate change is expected but watch the FOMC policy statement closely.  Hopefully, we will not get sideswiped.  Want to get this out as the market is taking some heat.  Mortgage backs now off 10/32’s so a price change is imminent.

The tactical bias for Austin mortgage rates and pricing is to remain neutral

For the most part, both fixed income and equity markets are quiet following the wild Goldman Sachs induced ride we had on Friday.  Bonds, notes, and mortgage backed securities seem to be at a crossroads, trying to handicap the ramifications of Goldman’s alleged fraud.  That alone will keep a flight to quality bid in the market.

Greece is a helper on that front as well with more uncertainty, adding 35 bps to their yield (10 year debt) and then there’s China, tapping the brakes on real estate lending.  That sent the Shanghai index down 5% in early trading.  Stateside focus is clearly Goldman but also on 1^st quarter earnings.  Citi reported before the bell, actually making a profit of .14 cents a share.  At any rate, it’s a good thing for the tax payers since we own a big chunk of the company.

Leading Economic Indicators were also released, up 1.4%.  The print was .4% better than market expectations but in reality, the index is such a rear view mirror piece of data that most traders blink as it goes by.  Speaking of data, it’s a light week with the next release due for Thursday and Friday.  Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, and Durable Goods Orders will be the headliners.

The tactical bias for Austin mortgage rates and pricing is to remain neutral, trading a range on the 10 year note between 3.75% and 3.82%.  Stocks want clarity on the Goldman/SEC issue which will lead bonds to react accordingly.  Our work on the 10 year note chart is providing neutral to bullish trend signals and overbought conditions at the same time.  Classic example of a mixed bag.

Currently, the 10 year note is off 3/32’s (yield 3.78%), mortgage backs off 3/32’s, and stocks off 8 points on the big board.

Austin Mortgage Rates Lower After Strong Auction Demand

Although this week’s economic data was generally stronger than expected, it was overshadowed by solid demand for the Treasury auctions and intensified concerns about the economic situation in Greece, which helped mortgage markets. After reaching the highest levels since August, Austin mortgage rates ended a little lower than where they ended last week.

Recent increases in yields on long-term fixed-rate securities such as 10-yr Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) appeared to have been sufficient to attract investors. Very strong demand from both foreign and domestic investors for Wednesday’s 10-yr auction pushed Treasury yields lower, and Austin mortgage rates followed. Increasing the appeal, renewed worries about the fiscal situation in Greece caused investors to seek the safety of US securities. Comforting statements from Fed officials that they expect inflation to remain low for a long time also added to the demand.

In the housing sector, February Pending Home Sales jumped 8% from January, far exceeding the consensus forecast. Pending Home Sales are a leading indicator of housing market activity. The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) considered the data to be a potential sign of a “second surge of home sales this spring”. To receive the homebuyer tax credit, contracts must be signed by the end of April, which likely boosted the results for February. As buyers seek to take advantage of the program, March and April pending sales may show strength as well.

Week Ahead

The most significant economic data next week will be Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. The Retail Sales report will also come out on Wednesday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic activity, will be released on Thursday. Housing Starts are scheduled for Friday. The Beige Book, Import Prices, the Trade Balance, Consumer Sentiment, and Philly Fed will round out a busy week.

Austin Mortgage Rates Rise on Weak Auctions

A combination of factors was negative for mortgage markets this week, and Austin mortgage rates ended higher. Large budget deficits and economic troubles in smaller European Union nations made bonds less attractive to global investors. In addition, stock market gains sent the Dow to an 18-month high, which pulled funds out of fixed income investments. Finally, with just one week remaining for the Fed’s MBS purchase program, comments from Fed Chief Bernanke about potential future MBS sales added to the pressure in mortgage markets.

For months, investors have been concerned that the enormous supply of debt needed to fund US government spending would force yields on US Treasury securities to rise to attract purchasers. This is what took place this week. Demand was surprisingly weak at all of this week’s record Treasury auctions, especially from foreign investors, and yields were pushed higher. Since mortgage-backed securities (MBS) compete for investors with Treasuries, MBS yields rose as well, pushing Austin mortgage rates higher.

In a speech on Thursday, Fed Chief Bernanke added to the volatility in mortgage markets with his comments about the possible timing of future sales of MBS from the Fed’s portfolio. To support the economy, the Fed has purchased almost $1.25 trillion of MBS since the start of 2009. The Fed has made clear from the start that it was a temporary measure and that it would eventually sell its MBS holdings when the economy was healthy enough. Earlier this month, Bernanke stated that he did not expect the Fed to sell assets “in the near term”. On Thursday, however, his language changed a little. While Bernanke assured investors that MBS sales would be gradual and that they would only take place if the economy were strong enough to handle it, he opened the door for the start of Fed MBS sales at an earlier date than previously anticipated.