Wholesale Trade was the last of today’s data points, up .1% with Sales down .7%.  The .1% print was below expectations of plus .4%.  Sales falling .7% is the evil twin in this report.  It’s the second decline in a row following 13 months of gains.  Bottom line is more inventory, less sales, and a drag on GDP.  Post data, market reaction has not been what one would expect.  Stocks are off 84 on the big board, 10 year note off 3/32’s, and mortgage backs off 5/32’s.  Stocks make sense as the data stunk.  Notes and MBS are lower in sympathy with hedging for the 84 billion in auction paper due over the next three days.

Today’s FOMC will be the story of the day.  Many are looking for the Fed to take a baby step towards a second round of stimulus, etc.  We see this as being premature.  Prior to today’s policy statement, the Fed has done nothing to set up the market for this kind of a change.  In fact, Ben Bernanke has been cheerleading the market about slower growth with a stabilizing economy.  Why would he/they do a 180 and now talk about doom and gloom?  This would panic the market.  We see the policy stating that growth and the consumer are soft but not dead.  They could slip in an announcement about using proceeds of their MBS purchases to reinvest in additional purchases.  We shall see.

What we do know is that the bond market is anticipating additional accommodation via treasury/MBS purchases or others forms of stimulus.  We may, in fact, have gotten a little ahead of ourselves (Austin interest rates too good) so be careful.  Details will be out at 1:15 pm cst.

With the 10 year note now trading at 3.09%, a level not seen since last April, many are talking about our market being “bubble-ishous”.  The other contingent thinks bond prices are just “insane”.  With the 10 year yield at levels not seen since 2008 and 1962, one would think that a correct is imminent.  Quite possible but not a given.  Technically, our chart work makes a case for 2.92% to 2.78% on the 10 year note.  All depends on stocks and the economy.  Even the FOMC “downgraded” the economy to underperform.

Early buying today has started to show signs of a new bullish trend, endorsed by almost every oscillator.  The key to a new trend will be a close below 3.09% on the 10 year note.  This will activate a break of the major double top which has been in place for over a year.  “If” this happens, the next target will be 2.88%.  Not to throw cold water on the bulls but we think this market is a little long in the tooth, pricing in as much bad news as one could imagine.

Not to say we will not see lower Austin mortgage rates and better pricing but for that to come to fruition, we’ll need a major catalyst.  Something like a stock market rout or collapse of Greece.  In English, the smart money will bet against this, at least for a corrective trade that could take the 10 year note back to 3.25%.  Pricing was struck with MBS unchanged, now down 5/32’s. Trigger fingers are getting twitchy.

With Austin mortgage rates at or near historic lows, best bet is to take a little off the table before the market “potentially” picks your pocket. Careful out there.

FHFA (home price index) was plus .8% in April, reversing a two month slide.  On balance, housing looks to be stable but guarded.  Pimco strategist, Richard Clarida is on the wire talking about the Fed changing their language in tomorrow’s policy statement.  The change is regarding the economy as “sluggish” from stable, noting that since April, world and US economies have softened.  We have treasury paper coming to auction as well.  2’s today, 5’s tomorrow, and the 7 year note on Thursday.  Shouldn’t be a problem here.

We also got a peek at early predictions of month end extension needs.  Those are for money funds, etc. that much adjust to meet the Barclay’s index.  Extension needs for June look to be a bit larger than normal with the treasury complex needing to add .6 years and MBS .10 years.  In a nut shell, this will create buying in fixed income, adding support to Austin mortgage pricing.  Technically, the bias is neutral looking to buy weakness and sell strength.  Nothing new here as this has been the trend for the past several sessions.

In other news, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index jumped 5.6 points to 57.9.  Both current and future expectations rose with the only drawback being concerns about income remaining weak.  The FOMC (Fed Open Market Committee) started their two day meeting today with little expected, except for some possible minor policy tweaking.  Results and/or changes are due out tomorrow at 1:15 pm cst.  The Fed is in the market today, peddling 44 billion of 2 year notes.  Results will be out at high noon cst today.

With all that’s going on, the stage stealer seems to be Greece and their two year note going over 15% and now a down grade to Portugal’s debt. S & P has cut Greek bond rating to junk, equivalent to subprime paper.  Flight to quality buying in treasuries has goosed the market high while punishing stocks in its wake.  Mortgage backs are along for the ride, up 14/32’s as we speak.  Stocks are in sea of red, down 140 something on the big board.  Technically, the stealth rally has taken us to major resistance, right at the low yield mark of 3.67%.  A break and close below 3.67% is needed to confirm the upside move and project that further gains (lower yields better mortgage pricing) is in the cards.  With most oscillators now neutral to bullish, the only fly in the ointment is growing overbought conditions on the chart.

Seems like a good day to take advantage of the best Austin mortgage pricing in quite some time.  More in a few.

In other news, Durable Goods, items which are supposed to last 3 years or more, fell 1.3% yet ex-transportation, the index was plus 2.8%.  Orders for transportation equipment fell 12.9%, dragging the overall index into the red.  New Home Sales were also released, up 26.9% to 411K annual units.  The print blew away economists estimates of plus 330K.  Every region of the country rebounded with the “South rising again”, up 43% month on month.  Although the numbers were great, they are coming off the worst month (February) in 22 years.  The gains also smell of the last mad rush for 8K in buyers credit money before we put that program to bed the end of next week.

Given the fundamentals of the economy, bond pricing is very expensive, meaning that if that market was not being influenced by outside forces (global debt crisis, etc.) Austin mortgage rates would simply move higher.  That’s why borrowers need to be careful as every day is a new day and expecting the unexpected is more common place than you think.  We tipped you off to the technical trade that was developing yesterday and our bearish expectations.  It was a text book classic double top, fuel injected 6 speed and Hemi powered, convertible top with navigation and a kicker sound system.  Sorry, I got carried away.  The pattern did play out and added to the bond bearish news of the day, having pinched mortgage pricing for another .25 point.  Currently, the 10 year note is off 11/32’s (yield 3.82%), MBS off 8/32’s, and stocks up 9 points on the Dow.

We still feel that the trade is range bound between 3.75% and 3.83% so given our digits, additional selling is starting to lose favor.  Short term momentum is over sold in both notes and bonds which should give us a little support as well.  Call the market neutral with a little recovery due as we move into the last week of the month.  We’ll try to wrap this up later today.

The FOMC is finishing up their two day meeting with any change in short term rates and policy statement due out at 1:15 pm cst.  The consensus thinking is that they will continue their low interest rate policy for an “extended period of time”.  We also expect the FOMC to note that the economy still has “challenges” with some improvement seen within the economy.

Given today’s power packed agenda, the FOMC should not move the market.  Earlier this morning, New Home Sales dipped by 7.6% to 342K units.  Sales gains in the Northwest and West were over shadowed by losses in the Midwest and South.  Housing, along with employment, needs to be top priority for our country.  Let’s see what the CEO of the U.S. has to say tonight.

We also have 42 billion of 5 year notes on the auction block.  Results are due at high noon cst.  Given the anxiety in stocks and overseas markets, we expect the issue to go well.  Trouble with this call is that it is happening on a FOMC day and historically, only one out of the last five have come in on the screws.  The others had been sloppy.  Technically, the market is making higher highs and higher lows, holding the bullish regression line.

Once again we challenged the 3.56% yield level and have backed away.  Currently, the 10 year note is up 6/32’s (yield 3.61%), mortgage backs up 3/32’s, and stocks off 30 something on the big board.  Buckle up!

Currently, the 10 year note is up 2/32’s (yield 3.62%), mortgage backs up 1/32^nd, and stocks plus 73 on the big board.  Trading is a little spooky right now as Wall Street dealers fear there might not be the sponsorship for Wednesday and Thursday’s longer duration auction paper ( 5’s and 7 year notes).  We also have the FOMC statement tomorrow and the State of the Union speech so buckle up, this thing could get slippery.  Earlier today, Consumer Confidence was out with a print of 55.9 (improvement) and the Case Shiller Home Price Index was down 5.3% (as expected).

Earlier than that, the wheels were churning across the pond as Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and now Japan are struggling with their sovereign debt.  S&P just put Japan on the negative credit watch.  With China putting the brakes on bank lending, the mood outside the U.S. is tentative at best.  On the bright side, Barclay’s has issued their indices for month end extensions, a measure that fixed income funds must conform to per their filings.  The extensions are larger than expected so in English, this will be supportive of mortgage pricing until at least Thursday afternoon.  Technically, the high today approached the 62% retracement level of the November/December selloff (188 11 in futures/ 3.56% yield on the 10 year note).  We failed to take that level out and have now backed away.

Not to rain on your parade but this failure could be the start of a new corrective phase.  Your key will be if yields on the 10 year note print 3.65% or higher.  On the bright side, daily oscillators are still posting positive readings and holding above midrange levels.  All good things for those that want lower mortgages/better pricing.  Just want you to know that this baby is like herding cats so keep both hands on the leash!