1)      Non-Farm Payrolls – Plus 60K

2)      Private Payrolls – Plus 75K

3)      Unemployment Rate – 9.6%

4)      Hourly Earnings – Plus .1

5)      Average Workweek – 34.2 hours

Our bias for tomorrow’s release is for slightly better numbers that market consensus.  We feel that Non-farm payroll figures will post the first positive reading since May at plus 75K.  Our “guess” is predicated on better ISM Manufacturing Survey employment figures, census worker fluctuations being a thing of the past, a pickup in construction jobs due to better housing starts, and private sector employment continuing to add new workers.

Using one standard deviation, the print should come in between a positive 83k and positive 37K.  More than 100K and less than 25k would be considered “outliers” and definitely move the market.  We like the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 9.6% but would not be surprised to see 9.5%.  We agree with market consensus on Hourly Earnings and Average Work week projections.  What are others saying?

1)      Wells Fargo – Plus 29K at 9.6%

2)      Barclays – Plus 60K at 9.6%

3)      UBS – Plus 70K at 9.6%

4)      RBS – Plus 75K at 9.6% (We think they have it right)

5)      JPMorgan – Plus 110K at 9.6%

Market reaction favors steady to slightly worsening Austin mortgage pricing.  With the rally over the past few days, risk reward in not in your favor, Austin mortgage borrowers, unless the print reflects negative jobs growth.  At the same time, the Bernanke trade is still the game and will continue to support bond and mortgage pricing for as far as the eye can see.  Just the same, this report creates so much volatility that it is best to lock your interest rates now.  Hard to lose when you use PrimeLending’s world-famous float down option!

Better to be a live dog than a dead lion!

After yesterday’s FOMC meeting, it became apparent that the Fed would pull out all the stops in an effort to get the economy and employment going again.  “Asset” purchases are all the rage as the government is once again the buyer of choice (treasuries).  Stocks love the idea of free money and a weakening dollars, boosting value in equities across the board.

Gold is up $40.00 as well, pricing in heightened expectations of inflation down the road.  Seems to me that the Chairman and the Prez met by the water cooler and the conversation when something like this.  “Ben, I’m in a tough spot here, my party just got its head handed to it and unemployment is nearly 10%, now I’m not telling you what to do but……… I need a game changer.  What you say we fire up the printing press and go on a buying spree.  Just a thought.”

In the news, Weekly Unemployment Claims jumped 20K to 457K while 3^rd Quarter Productivity rose 1.9%.  No one noticed as traders were too busy trying to buy bonds and stocks.  With the Employment Report for October due out at 7:30 am cst tomorrow, the prudent thing for Austin mortgage borrowers is to lock their Austin mortgage rates now.

Given that we are at the best levels in a month, your timing couldn’t be better in front of such a high profile release.  We’ll preview the Employment Report early this afternoon.

Technically, trading has been a whipsaw affair.  You will notice the downdraft yesterday (post FOMC) and the reversal this morning.  Typically a good indication the market has run its course in the short run, especially in front of the high profile data coming tomorrow.  Just the same, this baby is a bull and will be well supported into year-end given the Fed and their reloaded check book.  Call the market neutral/bullish.  Take advantage as the Employment trade is always volatile.

For the week of November 1, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 44

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Last week’s big rush of housing news began on Monday with Existing Home Sales for September UP 10% from the month before. The annual rate hit 4.53 million. This was the second straight monthly gain after July’s record low following the expiration of the tax credits. The national median price for existing homes is now at $171,700, down 2.4% from a year ago. Unsold inventory dropped 1.9% from the prior month to a 10.7 months’ supply.

Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes came in weaker for August, also seen as a result of the expiration of the tax credits. The 10-city index was down 0.1% for the month and the 20-city index off 0.2%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly house price index showed U.S. home prices falling 2.4% from August a year ago and 13.7% off their April 2007 peak. This index only tracks the prices of homes purchased with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Wednesday, New Home Sales for September were UP 6.6%, coming off record lows in July and August. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 307,000, which is down 21.5% from a year ago. Good news came with the median new home price rising 3.3% from the year before, now at $223,800. The supply also came in at 8 months, with the actual number of unsold new homes the lowest it’s been since 1968.

>> Review of Last Week

FLAT WEEK, UP MONTH… Investors on Wall Street kept things in check last week, leaving the Dow down by a whisker, the S&P 500 dead flat, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up a modest 1.1%. Observers felt traders were awaiting this week’s midterm elections and then Wednesday’s Fed meeting statement regarding its next round of quantitative easing to spur growth. For the month, stocks did quite nicely with the S&P 500 up 3.7%; the Dow up 3%, its best October since 2006; and the Nasdaq up 5.9%, its best October in seven years.

In the week’s economic news, a plus always seemed to come with a minus. For example, Consumer Confidence was up in October, but it still remains at historically low levels. This is occurring over a year since the economy transitioned from recession to recovery, at least as measured by overall growth. Durable Goods Orders were up 3.3% in September, but it all came from aircraft and parts. Exclude those, and orders were down 0.8% for the month.

It was somewhat encouraging to see weekly jobless claims dropping for the third straight week. This put them at their lowest level since July, but still in troublesome territory above 400,000. Finally, the advanced estimate of Q3 GDP came in at 2.0% annual growth. This was in line with expectations and shows the economy is in fact growing. But 2% is well below the growth rate economists say we need to make a significant dent in the unemployment rate.

For the week, the Dow was down 0.1%, to 11118.49; the S&P 500 ended flat, at 1183.26; but the Nasdaq was UP 1.1%, to 2507.41.

Bond prices dipped for a good part of the week, then rebounded, but not quite enough. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 10 basis points for the week, closing at $103.02. National average mortgage rates for most mortgages remain at historically low levels. A cautionary note: the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates of 30-year fixed-rated mortgages will begin rising next year.

>> This Week’s Forecast

HEARING FROM THE FEDS, WAITING FOR THE JOBS… There are plenty of economic reports to ponder this week, but two items stand out. The Fed will be meeting on Wednesday and while no one expects the Fed Funds rate to go up, everyone will be looking for indications of when the Fed will start its second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) and how much money will get thrown into the system. The other point of interest will be the October jobs report on Friday. The forecast is for payrolls to be up by 45,000 jobs, which isn’t very many, but at least it’s a positive number, though the unemployment rate is predicted to hold at 9.6%.

Highlights of the remaining economic news include the PCE inflation reading expected to stay at 0.4%, and ISM predicted down a little, though still showing manufacturing expanding. The week ends with Friday’s Pending Home Sales for September, forecast to be up 0.5%, a good thing but not quite as good as August’s hike of over 4%.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 1 – November 5

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists agree that the Fed Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for quite some time. Inflation could change that, of course, but experts feel that’s quite a way down the road. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

No matter what the reason, traders respected chart patterns which projected good support, allowing for a nice little rally this morning.  Buyers started the party in Tokyo and quickly transfered power to stateside traders, interested in buying 30 year bonds.  Since the early gains, the market has been back and forth on light volume yet holding most of today’s gains.  However, the caution flag is still out as the market has not been able to trade above the 8 day moving average.  We really need a close above this level to find our comfort zone.

We see the set up as neutral, given a multitude of bearish divergences on one side and Fed Chief Bernanke and his dollar printing press on the other.  Throw all the factors together and you can make a good case for the market and Austin mortgage pricing to stall unit early November’s elections and FOMC meeting.

A speech by Fed Chief Bernanke on Friday confirmed the expectation that the Fed will soon provide additional monetary stimulus by purchasing Treasury securities. The Fed’s plan is to boost the economy and to bring the inflation level up to the Fed’s preferred rate. According to Bernanke, “There would appear – all else being equal – to be a case for further action.” Investors hoping for more information about the size of the purchase program were disappointed, as Bernanke stated that it is still being discussed by Fed officials. Investors expect the Fed to reveal the details of the program at the next FOMC meeting on November 3, if not sooner.

The data released during the week showed that core inflation remains below the Fed’s desired range of 1.5% to 2.0% per year. The September Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes the volatile food and energy components, increased just 0.8% from one year ago, which was the lowest annual rate in more than 49 years. Central bankers around the world generally agree that a stable, positive inflation rate is optimal for long-term economic growth.

The fear factor today will be the results of 21 billion in 10 year notes crossing the auction block (high noon cst).  After yesterday’s dismal 3 year offering, the street is wondering who will show up to buy the paper.  Notes, bonds, and mortgage backs are respecting the fear of the unknown.  Currently, 10 year notes are off 15/32’s, the 30 year bond is off 40/32’s, and mortgage backs are cheating fate, down only 3/32’s.  Stocks are having a party, up 110 on the big board as corporate America churns and earns.

Technically, there are a couple of things you need to pay attention to.  First is the Elliott Wave count which has probably completed its 5 wave.  This pattern started in June and has been very accurate.  The break of yesterday’s trend line and continuance to trade below it is strong evidence that a new A wave has begun.  If correct, the pattern projects a trade to at least the 38% retracement target of 125 28 (10 year futures) or the yield equivalent of 2.58%.  This type of corrective trade could last for a month, slowly eroding Austin mortgage pricing until a bottom is found.

From our perspective, the market seems to have fully priced in QE2 and now must wait until the next FOMC meeting (11/2) to see if it comes to fruition.  The “wait” is making some nervous.  Continued corporate earnings, with the expectations that most will beat, will add additional pressure to fixed income and Austin mortgage pricing.  Best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers is to take a defensive posture.  With so much bond-friendly news priced in, the risk reward for better mortgage pricing is just not there, folks.

For the week of October 4, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 40

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Last week’s housing market data centered on Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. This showed home prices UP in July for the fourth month in a row, but the pace of their gain had slowed from prior months. With the expiration of the government’s home buyer tax incentives, some observers wonder if the S&P/Case-Shiller will keep moving up. The composite 20-city index, a broad measure of U.S. home prices, showed a 3.2% increase year over year, the sixth month in a row it posted an annual gain.

Nonetheless, home price gains did slow in the waning days of the tax credits. In July, only 12 of the 20 cities surveyed showed price gains, compared to 17 cities reporting rising prices in June. Analysts pointed out that these results underscore the fact that the spring/early summer months are the best for home sales. Most experts feel the next few months should give us a better idea of the true strength of the housing market.

>> Review of Last Week

A BIT OF A BREATHER… Investors on Wall Street took a rest last week from bidding stock prices up the way they had earlier in the month. Performance of the major market indexes was uninspiring, though slippages were all less than a half a percent. But performance for the month was impressive. The broad-based S&P 500 index, favored by professional investors, shot up 8.8% for September, its best monthly gain since April 2009 and its best September reading in over 70 years.

Perhaps investors took the week off because they remain cautious about the near-term economic recovery. Consumers seem to agree, as the week began with a surprise drop in September’s Consumer Confidence Index, which hit a seven-month low, falling far short of consensus expectations. The ISM Manufacturing Index also slid a bit from August to September, missing estimates, but remaining in expansion territory.

Upside economic data included better than forecast weekly initial jobless claims, although 453,000 is still not a good number. Continuing claims dropped by 83,000 for the week, but that number remains well above 4 million. Personal income and spending (PCE) for August were up better than expected and Core PCE was up just 0.1%, so inflation is still in check.

For the week, the Dow ended down 0.3%, to 10829.68; the S&P 500 was down 0.2%, to 1146.24; and the Nasdaq was off 0.4%, to 2370.75.

The bond market ended the week with investor interest helping prices in some areas. One was the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch, which ended UP 10 basis points for the week, closing at $102.27. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, national average mortgage rates for fixed-rate mortgages dropped a tad, remaining at historically low levels. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

WHERE WE’RE GOING WITH HOMES AND JOBS… The week begins with August Pending Home Sales, which count signed contracts and therefore tell us what will be happening with closings a few months out. Unfortunately, the consensus expects the August reading to be down a bit from July. But September ISM Services is expected to show the non-manufacturing sector still indicating expansion, with a reading just over 50.

The week ends with the September Employment Report and the forecast is for no increase in payrolls overall, although 70,000 jobs are expected to be added to the private sector. However, population growth outpaces this rate of job creation, so unemployment is predicted to tick up to 9.7%.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 4 – October 8

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months There’s been a lot of talk about the Fed’s readiness to provide a second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) if needed. This has led economists to believe that the Fed Funds Rate will remain at its rock bottom levels for quite some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

Release Date: August 10, 2010

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.¹ The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee’s ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee’s policy objectives.

Wholesale Trade was the last of today’s data points, up .1% with Sales down .7%.  The .1% print was below expectations of plus .4%.  Sales falling .7% is the evil twin in this report.  It’s the second decline in a row following 13 months of gains.  Bottom line is more inventory, less sales, and a drag on GDP.  Post data, market reaction has not been what one would expect.  Stocks are off 84 on the big board, 10 year note off 3/32’s, and mortgage backs off 5/32’s.  Stocks make sense as the data stunk.  Notes and MBS are lower in sympathy with hedging for the 84 billion in auction paper due over the next three days.

Today’s FOMC will be the story of the day.  Many are looking for the Fed to take a baby step towards a second round of stimulus, etc.  We see this as being premature.  Prior to today’s policy statement, the Fed has done nothing to set up the market for this kind of a change.  In fact, Ben Bernanke has been cheerleading the market about slower growth with a stabilizing economy.  Why would he/they do a 180 and now talk about doom and gloom?  This would panic the market.  We see the policy stating that growth and the consumer are soft but not dead.  They could slip in an announcement about using proceeds of their MBS purchases to reinvest in additional purchases.  We shall see.

What we do know is that the bond market is anticipating additional accommodation via treasury/MBS purchases or others forms of stimulus.  We may, in fact, have gotten a little ahead of ourselves (Austin interest rates too good) so be careful.  Details will be out at 1:15 pm cst.

Tomorrow’s one day FOMC meeting will hold the key as any interest rate changes/policy changes will be released at 1:15 pm cst.  Some feel the Fed will take a baby step towards purchasing more securities (treasuries) to keep interest rates low.  Others talk more spending or tax cuts, infrastructure spending, a payroll tax holiday (like that one), and government backed guaranteed loans to small business.

Technically, it’s hard to find anything standing in the way of this bull.  The chart shows you how Friday’s trade took out the trend line that has capped the market for the past month.  Traders will now be looking a target of at least 2.75% – 2.78%.  The only thing we see that could derail the move is 84 billion in auction paper (3’s, 10’s and 30 year bonds) coming this week.  Keep in mind that the market has priced in a lot of bad news, even the high probability of a double dip.  With that in mind and the fact we’re trading at or near historic low yields, best bet is for Austin borrowers to lock in today’s great Austin mortgage rates and move on down the road.