Currency wars is what this is all about and the Fed is getting exactly what it hoped for, consumer expectations of rising inflation to shut the door on deflation.  This was evidenced in last week’s Michigan Sentiment Survey.  With QE2 priced in “before” it happened and the negative connotations mentioned above, treasuries have continued to be slaughtered, sending credit costs higher, doing nothing to stimulate the economy.  Look for the Fed to try and talk rates back down.

So far today, that hasn’t been the case as Uncle Sam bought about 8 billion in paper with little to no effect.  10’s are trading at 2.85%, down 22/32’s on the day.  Mortgage backs are off 9/32’s and stocks are up 65 on the big board.

Retail Sales hit the tape up 1.2%, a touch better than expected.  Stripping out autos, the index was plus .4%.  Business inventories/Sales were also released, up .9% and up .5% respectfully.  The week ahead is a doozy, starting with inflation numbers (PPI and CPI) over the next two days.

Technically, the selling today has taken the chart below the October lows (high yield mark) and then rebounded ever so slightly.  Bearish readings and Trend Intensity are evident on every chart time frame.  The best we can hope for is that the October low will hold (good so far) and the market will begin to repair itself.  Odds are good for a rally based on oversold conditions along.  Just the same, this is not a market to mess with.  Until there is a sea change in the way traders view QE2, this version of Sonny and Cher’s “the beat goes on” will continue.

The New York Fed (Empire State) Manufacturing report was also released, jumping 12 points to 15.7.  Both new shipments and orders improved at the fastest pace since June.  Overall, the factory sector in NY seems to be on the mend.

Last but not least, we got a look at the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey which declined from 68.2 to 67.9.  Current conditions did the damage, falling 5.4 points.  Future expectations did a little better, up 4 points for the month.  Big Ben, printing press supervisor for the Federal Reserve was speaking in bean town this morning.  He all but assured the market of QE2 coming with details most likely presented at their November 2^nd/3^rd meeting.

The 10 year note, 30 year bond, and mortgage backs have been taking a beating.  The note is currently of 18/32’s.  Mortgage backs continue to slide, now off 7/32’s.  Stocks are a mixed bag and no help to bonds.  Dow off 46 points, Naz up 21 points on Google’s earnings.  That stock is up 58 bucks!

From our perspective, the market has fully priced in QE2 and has shifted the focus to a weak dollar and indigestion from 66 billion of auction paper that is now underwater.  Call the market neutral/bearish with good support nearby.  As we have preached all week, defense is your friend, Austin mortgage borrowers, and the exclusive float down option from Max Leaman is a no brainer.  We’ll try to wrap it up later today.

With both retail and fast money accounts quiet, pricing reflects much of the same.  10 year notes are up 1/32^nd, current coupon mortgage backs up 1/32^nd, and stocks down 20 points on the big board.  The week ahead will feature Import Prices tomorrow, Weekly Unemployment Claims and inflation data (PPI) on Thursday, and CPI (inflation at the consumer level), Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, and Michigan Sentiment Survey on Friday.

Currently, the best bet for Austin mortgage borrowers: don’t take historic low Austin mortgage rates for granted.

For the week of September 20, 2010 – Vol. 8, Issue 38

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE Fannie Mae released a housing survey showing 70% of those polled in June and July feel now is a good time to buy a home. This is up from a 64% reading in January. At the same time, 83% of those people surveyed think it’s a bad time to sell, which isn’t such a terrible thing, since there’s still plenty of inventory for buyers to choose from.

Another group of industry observers concluded that sales of existing homes hit bottom in July and will rebound in the fall. They based this on recent reports for purchase mortgage applications and pending home sales, which track signed purchase contracts for existing homes.

The fact remains, homes are now more affordable for more people than they’ve been in years. And today’s historically low Austin mortgage rates make monthly payments much easier to work into the family budget. Prices may have bottomed out indeed. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes show that nationally, home prices are 3.6% above levels a year ago. For buyers who expect to live in their home a while, many observers feel this is clearly a very smart time to purchase.

>> Review of Last Week

UP YET AGAIN… For investors on Wall Street, positive feelings continue to prevail over negative vibes and uncertainties, as stocks closed higher for the third week in a row. All the major market indexes were up, with the extra strength of the tech sector pushing the Nasdaq up well over 3%. In addition, all three indexes are now UP for the year.

Worrying investors, and everyone, were things like Thursday’s report that the U.S. poverty rate was at a 16-year high. Other data showed that real median household income last year was essentially unchanged over 2008. No surprise then that Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at its lowest level since August a year ago. The day before, the Producer Price Index reported wholesale inflation a bit higher than anticipated, which got some analysts concerned that consumers might see price hikes next.

Those fears were quelled Friday with Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings that had inflation well under control at the retail level. And the 1.1% year-over-year gain in the CPI showed that those who feared deflation have nothing to worry about for now. Other encouraging signs included a rise in Industrial Production for August that met expectations and August Retail Sales that beat forecasts, evidence that consumers may be worried, but they’re still spending!

For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.4%, to 10607.85; the S&P 500 was UP 1.4%, to 1125.59; and the Nasdaq was UP 3.3%, to 2315.61.

It was another mixed week in the bond market, but prices held up enough. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended a mere 5 basis points ahead for the week, closing at $102.09. National average mortgage rates continue at historically low levels, though some observers do expect them to move up a little by the end of the year. 

>> This Week’s Forecast

WOO-HOO, HOUSING AND THE FED!… This week features our two favorite topics. The Fed’s an easy forecast, as virtually no one breathing thinks they’ll hike the Funds Rate at their meeting on Tuesday. As usual, however, their policy statement will bear scrutiny, as analysts look for signals that the rate could rise any time soon.

Tuesday’s August Housing Starts should finally show a slight uptick in activity. August Building Permits are also expected to be up a little, even though home builders remain cautious. Some experts feel we’re starting to turn the corner in housing, as a bit of growth is predicted in Thursday’s August Existing Home Sales and Friday’s August New Home Sales. 

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising Austin loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of September 20 – September 24

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Last week’s Consumer Price Index report showed inflation still under control. So with economic growth slowing, economists overwhelmingly believe the Fed will keep rates where they are at this week’s FOMC meeting and well into next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

Both bonds and stocks finished on the plus side today.  Not bad considering another batch of soft economic data and it being Friday the 13^th.  Speaking of data and events, the entire week was glooming starting with the Fed admitting (in so many words) that a second round of treasury buying is needed, Productivity slipping, Weekly Unemployment Claims rising, Retail Sales up but below forecast, CPI a non-event, Michigan Sentiment better but still below 70, and the Philly Fed downgrading their outlook for that region.  No wonder stocks took it on the chip and bonds, notes, and mortgage backs look like the Eveready bunny.

After yesterday’s selling, the 10 year note rebounded nicely, up 15/32’s on the day.  The week is ending with all time frames, daily, weekly, and monthly looking like 3 bulls in a china shop.  All ready for continued action.  Conditions favor continued bullish price action (Austin mortgage price improvement) but probably at a slower pace.  Reason being is that we’re in the 10^th consecutive week of positive price action on the weekly chart.  Something that is rare to see (8 weeks or more).

With so much doom and gloom built in, the sledding towards lower yield will become more difficult.  Just the same, the trend will be persistent and keep the market neutral worst case into next week.  Only a reversal in stock or economic sentiment will get in front of this bull.

Earlier today, CPI, inflation at the consumer level, hit the tape plus .3% while the core index was up .1%.  Auto prices and gasoline were all to do about the increase which in the big picture is quite tame.  Actually, our bigger concern is about disinflation as the economy cools.  Retail Sales were also in the mix, up .4% with the ex-autos component up .2%.  Auto sales were behind most of the push here as well, rising 1.6%.  While the numbers look encouraging on the surface, we see the loss of Census workers, loss of emergency unemployment benefits, and the withdrawal of various forms of stimulus starting to drag on the consumer.  Retailers will need a great holiday season to make it a good year.

Business Inventories completed the economic trifecta, rising .3% as sales fell .6%.  We talked about this earlier in the week, commenting about inventory builds with sales faltering.  Not a good prescription for GDP.  Trading, post data has been a light volume affair with the 10 year note up 8/32’s, mortgage backs unchanged to up 2/32’s, and stocks down 22 on the big board.  We expect a quiet day with a neutral bias.

We see a ton of pessimism build into pricing  which could limit further rallies but at the same time, any dips will be a buying opportunity for investors.  Given the auction paper to digest and the soft economic background, we expect the market to trade in a small range with a bullish bias, allowing for Austin mortgage pricing to be slightly better or worse from today’s levels over the next week or so.  We’ll wrap it up later today.

Stocks are getting pounded, down 200 on the Dow, the 10 year note is up 12/32’s, and mortgage backs are plus 4 to 6/32’s depending on the coupon. Why you ask.  First up, CPI, inflation at the consumer level fell .1% while the “core index” (ex-food and energy”, rose .1%.  Tame by any means with a whiff of deflation in the cards (slim chance in our opinion).  Michigan Sentiment Survey was the one that raised an eyebrow, falling nearly 10 points to 66.5.  Economists noted that consumers have gone into a cocoon, chaining their wallets to themselves only to be opened for necessitates.  Expect Retail Sales to soften in the future.

BP finally put a cork in their crude oil jug, a welcome site indeed. Technically, the late rally (yesterday) provided the perfect set up for a continuation pattern (further rally).  Stocks are really the major influence here.  We see this a just a move to the top of the range (2.90% 10 year note).  Any where here, current mortgage pricing or a little better is a good place for borrowers to lock in their Austin mortgage interest rates.  Any reversal in stocks will simple reverse our direction and take the market to the lower part of the range.  Enjoy the historic low Austin mortgage rates.

Congress passed the comprehensive Financial Regulations bill and President Obama will sign it into law soon. The bill provides a framework for oversight of the financial services industry, and certain aspects of the bill will affect mortgage lending and the home buying process. The bill calls for various regulatory agencies, some of which will be newly created, to determine the details. Implementation of most of the new mortgage-related rules is expected to take 18 to 24 months to complete.

Heading into a Fed meeting next week, the low inflation data released this week means there is little pressure on the Fed to begin raising the fed funds rate. May Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose at a 0.9% annual rate, the lowest level in four decades. Usually the major task of Fed officials is to prevent inflation from moving too high, but they are now concerned about the risk that inflation will drop too low. Fed officials are most comfortable when inflation remains in the 1.5% to 2.0% range. This also means that there is little inflationary pressure to push Austin mortgage rates higher. Of course, with expectations set so low, if inflation were to surprisingly increase in coming months, it could cause a large reaction in the Austin mortgage market.

Will the “close by” deadline to receive the Home Buyer Tax Credit be extended? The answer to this question is not known as of this Friday morning. The Senate has approved an amendment to a larger bill to do so, but the larger bill is still being debated and its passage is not certain. Extending the “close by” deadline will benefit qualifying home buyers who are not able to close by June 30, the original deadline. Extending the deadline sooner rather than later would help relieve some anxiety. Right now, people in all phases of the home buying process are working very long hours to close an unusually large number of purchases before the end of the month.